KAS Technical Analysis February 4, 2026: Market Structure

KAS is exhibiting an LH/LL structure within a clear downtrend and is consolidating around $0.03. A break above the $0.0326 resistance could signal a trend change (CHoCH); otherwise, the $0.0287 support could be tested.

Market Structure Overview

KAS's current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern confirms the bearish momentum. While the price is moving in a narrow range at the $0.03 level, it has failed to stay above EMA20 ($0.04), reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is also giving a bearish signal and highlighting the $0.04 resistance. RSI at 28.95 is approaching the oversold region, while MACD sustains the downward pressure with a negative histogram. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 13 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances in 1D, 1 support/2 resistances in 3D, and a balance of 3 supports/4 resistances in 1W, indicating a resistance-heavy appearance in higher timeframes. In this structure, preserving LLs is critical for trend continuation; HH/HL formation will be a reversal signal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, a higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern should be sought. Although not visible currently, a breakout above the $0.0326 swing high (BOS) followed by a new HL formation (above $0.0321) could confirm a bullish structure. RSI exiting oversold and MACD histogram turning positive would be additional important signals. However, as long as the current $0.03 price remains below EMA20, the uptrend risk will stay low. Bullish target: $0.0500 (score:31), but this requires a local resistance breakout first.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strengthened by LH/LL: There is consolidation between the last swing high $0.0326 (score:76) and swing low $0.0287 (score:76). A break below $0.0287 (BOS) will form a new LL, not invalidating the bearish structure but continuing it. MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance is at $0.04. 24h decline of %4.31 aligns with BTC's parallel movement. Bearish target: $0.0145 (score:22). To reduce this risk, a close above $0.0326 is required.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure - BOS) is the key to trend change. For bearish BOS: A decisive close below the $0.0287 swing low confirms the downtrend with CHoCH (Change of Character) and invalidates the $0.0321 support. Bullish BOS: A close above the $0.0326 swing high, followed by movement to $0.0369 forming an HL, brings a bullish shift. A break at the higher level $0.04 (EMA20/Supertrend) invalidates the overall structure. Since MTF is resistance-heavy in 1W, BOS levels should be closely monitored. Breaking these levels triggers swing targets and increases volatility.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.0326 (score:76/100, strong LH), $0.0369 (score:63/100). $0.0326 is the peak of the bearish structure as local resistance; a break above it becomes bullish BOS. $0.0369 is a medium-term target, but difficult due to current LLs. These points align with fib retracement and are liquidity collection zones.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.0287 (score:76/100, critical support), $0.0321 (score:66/100). $0.0287 supports the bearish structure as the main LL; its break brings continuation, not reversal. $0.0321 is an intermediate support above the current price; if held, consolidation extends. These swings overlap with order blocks and are supported by MTF.

Bitcoin Correlation

As an altcoin, KAS shows high correlation to BTC (BTC $75,460, -3.64%). In BTC's downtrend ($75,472 supports are critical), Supertrend is bearish and rising dominance creates pressure on altcoins. If BTC fails to break $77,795 resistance, KAS will be pulled toward $0.0287. A BTC drop to $72,930 brings KAS closer to bearish targets ($0.0145). Conversely, a BTC breakout to $81,773 triggers an altcoin rally, creating a $0.0369 BOS opportunity for KAS. Monitor BTC levels for KAS Spot Analysis and KAS Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominant, consolidation in the $0.03 range. $0.0287 BOS is expected for trend continuation, $0.0326 BOS for change. MTF is resistance-heavy, RSI has oversold rebound risk but MACD is bearish. Volatility is low, no news. Structure education: HH/HL bullish, LH/LL bearish; confirmed by BOS CHoCH. Attention: Market structures can change rapidly, risk management is essential. Check the above links for spot and futures. (Word count: ~1050)