LINK Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

While LINK struggles with strong resistance at the $8.43 level, oversold conditions in RSI and the positive histogram in MACD support the upside scenario. However, the overall downtrend, Supertrend signal, and Bitcoin's weak performance increase downside risk, making both scenarios valid.

Current Market Situation

LINK price is currently trading at $8.43 and has fallen 3.21% in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $8.17 - $8.78, with volume measured at $222.53M, and the overall trend continues as a downtrend. In technical indicators, RSI at 35.91 is approaching the oversold zone, which could signal a potential rebound (bounce). The positive histogram formation in MACD indicates bullish divergence, while the price remains below EMA20 ($9.08), maintaining short-term bearish pressure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and drawing resistance at $10.12.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Critical support is at $8.1555 (score: 70/100), while resistances stand out at $8.4333 (81/100), $8.9976 (70/100), and $8.7085 (66/100). There has been no major news flow specific to LINK recently, so technical levels are in the forefront.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the upside scenario, the current price must first clearly break the $8.4333 resistance (score 81/100). This breakout should be confirmed by increased volume and RSI rising toward the 50 level. Then, $8.7085 and $8.9976 levels should be tested, moving above EMA20 ($9.08). Expansion of the MACD histogram and Supertrend turning bullish provide additional confirmation. A rebound from 1W supports (around $8.17) on the weekly timeframe strengthens this scenario. Bitcoin holding the $66,018 support could trigger an altcoin rally. If momentum increases after the breakout, short-term targets can be reached quickly; invalidation occurs with a break below $8.1555 support.

Target Levels

First target is the $8.9976 - $9.08 (EMA20) region, followed by $10.12 (Supertrend resistance). With strong momentum, the next target is $11.0800 (score 26). This level is based on Fibonacci extensions and previous high resistances. The risk/reward ratio, calculated from the current price, may appear attractive at around 1:2.5, but always apply your own risk management. You can check current charts on the LINK Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a high-volume break below the $8.1555 support (score 70/100). This breakout is confirmed by RSI dropping below 30 and the MACD histogram turning negative. The short-term bearish EMA structure (remaining below $9.08) and Supertrend's continued bearish signal increase the risk. In MTF, the weekly 3 resistances/2 supports balance may limit upside movement. Bitcoin weakening toward $64,337 intensifies selling pressure on altcoins like LINK. Decreasing volume or general market fear (rising fear index) accelerates this scenario. Invalidation level is a move above $8.4333.

Protection Levels

First protection is the $8.17 daily low, followed by 1W supports around $7.50 - $7.00. Main target is $5.0121 (score 22), which aligns with strong Fibonacci retracements and MTF supports. Risk/reward here could also be around 1:3. For futures trading, follow the LINK Futures Analysis page and set your stop-losses according to these levels.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers for both scenarios are breakout volume and indicator confirmation: For upside, close above $8.4333 + RSI 50+, for downside, close below $8.1555 + MACD negative. Daily candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing vs. bearish breakdown) and 4H EMA crossovers are critical. While market volatility is high, monitor news flow (e.g., Chainlink oracle updates). Do not ignore each scenario's invalidation; this helps with early position adjustments.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is currently in a downtrend at $65,643 with Supertrend giving a bearish signal (-2.63% 24h). As an altcoin highly correlated with BTC, LINK could be pressured below $8.00 if BTC fails to hold $66,018 support and falls to $64,337. Conversely, if BTC breaks $67,675 resistance ($69,412 target), it supports LINK's upside scenario. Rising BTC dominance triggers altcoin sales; be cautious for bearish if dominance exceeds 55%. BTC key levels: Supports $66,018 / $64,337 / $62,623; Resistances $67,675 / $69,412 / $71,092.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

LINK at around $8.43 is at a decision point, with both scenarios supported by technical data. Watchlist: $8.4333 / $8.1555 breakouts, RSI/MACD updates, BTC movements, and volume. Conduct your own analysis and focus on risk management – this analysis is prepared to teach probabilities. Wait for candle closes on daily charts and diversify your portfolio.