ONDO Technical Analysis 18 February 2026: RSI MACD Momentum

ONDO is trading in the neutral zone with RSI at 43.83, but while MACD's positive histogram indicates mild bullish momentum, its position below EMA20 continues short-term bearish pressure. Volume remains limited at $31.72M, showing overall downward trend dominance.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

ONDO's current price is at the $0.27 level and has recorded a slight 0.96% rise in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend structure continues to remain in a clear downtrend. The daily range is squeezed in a narrow $0.27-$0.28 band, indicating weak momentum and that buyers have not yet established strong dominance. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and marks $0.34 as resistance. Although momentum oscillators give mixed signals, the short-term EMA position emphasizes that bears are in control. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 12 strong levels have been identified; 1D has 3 resistances, 3D is balanced, and 1W is resistance-weighted. This reveals the need for additional driving force for an upward breakout. The volume profile is at average levels with $31.72M, but no increase is observed to strengthen trend confirmation; this indicates the sustainability of momentum is questionable.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

The 14-period RSI value is at 43.83 and positioned in the neutral zone, not triggering overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions. Recent traces of regular bearish divergence are weak; as price makes new lows, RSI is not forming higher lows, indicating no momentum exhaustion signal. However, there is potential for hidden bullish divergence: RSI holding stronger during price declines may imply a possible base formation. On the daily chart, RSI is moving sideways in the 40-50 band, and this neutral zone mandates a wait-and-see approach for trend change. On the weekly timeframe, RSI is stable around 45, and the absence of divergence supports the continuation of the downtrend. From a momentum confluence perspective, RSI's neutral stance gives a consolidation signal aligned with MACD.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 43.83 is close to the oversold region but has not yet entered; this level offers an opportunity for short-term recovery, but it remains weak against resistance levels ($0.2772 score 72/100). Historically, ONDO has shown strong rebounds when RSI drops below 30, but the current 43.83 value points to a "safe" neutral zone and eases selling pressure. Approaching 70 for overbought is a distant scenario in the current downtrend; therefore, RSI suggests a wait mode rather than a sell signal.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD status is reported as bullish, with positive histogram bars trending toward expansion and the MACD line dominant above the signal line. The positive histogram shows momentum strengthening in the lower bands; slight expansion in recent bars implies buyers are entering hidden accumulation. Signal line crossovers have recently remained bullish, but bear trap risk increases if the histogram narrows. On the daily chart, MACD (12,26,9) parameters show an effort to hold above the zero line, creating local bullish momentum within the downtrend. Unless confirmed by volume (current $31.72M limited), this signal may remain weak. If histogram dynamics show expansion instead of contractile narrowing, a test toward $0.2979 resistance is possible.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is trading below EMA20 ($0.28), confirming short-term bearish momentum. The ribbon between EMA10 and EMA20 is narrowed, signaling reduced trend strength; price breaking above EMA20 would be the first bullish confirmation. Short-term EMA dynamics failed to play a support role in recent declines and reinforced bear dominance.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA50 (around $0.30) and EMA200 (above $0.35) stand as distant resistances, with the ribbon structure sloping downward and weak trend strength. Medium-term EMAs are not providing support; strong volume is required for price to approach these levels. Remnants of the EMA ribbon's death cross support the downtrend continuation; momentum confluence is necessary for a golden cross.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is at $67,527 level with a 0.72% rise and consolidating within the downtrend; main supports are $66,555, $62,910, and $60,000, resistances are $68,062, $71,206. BTC Supertrend is bearish and rising dominance poses risk for altcoins. ONDO is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC breaking below $66,555 could push ONDO to $0.25 levels, while above $68,062 could trigger bullish targets ($0.4537). Under BTC bearish pressure, ONDO's momentum will remain limited; BTC levels should be critically monitored for ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis.

Momentum Result and Expectations

Overall momentum is mixed: RSI neutral (43.83), MACD positive histogram offers bullish hope but below EMA20 and Supertrend bearish dominate the downtrend. Resistances are concentrated between $0.2772-$0.3206 (score 67-72), lack of support increases downside risk. Bullish target $0.4537 (score 26) is distant, bearish $0.0647 (score 22) is possible. If volume increase and BTC recovery create confluence, upside potential opens; otherwise, consolidation continues. Although momentum oscillators do not give sell signals, trend strength is weak; the main level to watch is EMA20 breakout.