POL: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

POL is at a critical crossroads at the $0.15 level. While the overall uptrend continues, short-term bearish signals (MACD negative histogram, below EMA20) and strong resistance at $0.1529 make both scenarios possible. RSI at 45.53 is neutral, volume at $293M is stable, but the direction of the breakout will be decisive. Traders should be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

POL is currently trading at the $0.15 level, down %-1.56 in the last 24 hours and stuck in the $0.15-$0.16 range. Although the overall trend is uptrend, the short-term technical picture is mixed: RSI 45.53 (neutral, not near oversold), MACD bearish (negative histogram), price below EMA20 ($0.16), and Supertrend giving bearish signal, aligned with $0.17 resistance. Volume at $293.31M is moderate, no sudden changes.

Key levels: Supports $0.1495 (score 72/100), $0.1426 (67/100), $0.1322 (64/100). Resistances $0.1529 (94/100 - very strong), $0.1583 (60/100), $0.1657 (66/100). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows 15 strong levels: 1D (1S/4R), 3D (1S/3R), 1W (3S/4R) - resistance-heavy but balanced. No news flow, technically driven market. Access detailed data from the POL Spot Analysis and POL Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking above the $0.1529 resistance (94/100 score) with increased volume. If this level breaks, momentum builds: RSI moves above 50, MACD histogram turns positive, and Supertrend flips to bullish. Next resistances $0.1583 and $0.1657 are tested. Sustainability above EMA20 ($0.16) is required for uptrend continuation. Volume increase of +%20 and 1D candle close above resistance confirm. If 1W supports (around $0.1322) hold in MTF, bullish momentum strengthens. Invalidation: Scenario invalidates if $0.1495 support breaks.

In this scenario, traders should wait for breakout confirmation. For example, daily close above $0.1529 + positive RSI divergence gives a bullish signal. Risk/reward ratio: ~%40 potential from $0.15 to $0.2106, with tight stop at $0.1495 enabling 1:3 R/R.

Target Levels

First target $0.1657 (fib extension), then $0.17 Supertrend resistance, and final $0.2106 (score 22, MTF target). Reaching these levels aligns with the upper channel band of the uptrend. Watch: Volume profile and order blocks should be supportive.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario starts with rejection at $0.1529 resistance and break of $0.1495 support (72/100). MACD remains bearish, RSI drops below 40, and price deepens below EMA20. Selling pressure increases in volume (%15+ downward spike), Supertrend stays bearish. If 3D/1W resistances (4R on 1D) dominate in MTF, momentum turns down. Trigger: Daily red candle close below $0.1495. Invalidation: Scenario breaks with breakout above $0.1529.

In this case, the overall uptrend is tested but short-term bearish signals dominate. Risk/reward: ~%27 drop from $0.15 to $0.1085, stop at $0.1529 for balanced 1:2 R/R.

Protection Levels

First protection after $0.1495 break is $0.1426 (67/100), then $0.1322 (64/100). Final target $0.1085 (score 24, lower channel). These levels should be used as stop-losses; if MTF supports fail, it accelerates.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making levels are $0.1529 resistance and $0.1495 support - whichever breaks first activates that scenario. Confirmation signals: Volume (should increase for upside breakout), RSI (above 50 bull, below 40 bear), MACD cross (positive for bull). Daily/4H closes are critical. Monitor MTF alignment: 3S on 1W means bear risk, 4R means bull pressure. Wait when volatility is low, no news but general market (BTC correlation) could influence. Integrate invalidation levels into your trade plan for every scenario.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios for POL are equally likely: Bull requires $0.1529 break + volume, bear requires $0.1495 loss + MACD bear. Traders should be prepared with risk management (1-2% capital). Monitoring list: 1. $0.1529/$0.1495 breaks, 2. RSI/MACD changes, 3. Volume profile, 4. MTF levels. This analysis is for educational purposes; do your own research. Follow POL Spot and Futures pages for current data.