POL: Rise or Fall? January 15, 2026 Scenario Analysis

POL is standing at a critical juncture at the $0.15 level. While the long-term uptrend continues, short-term bearish signals (MACD negative histogram, below EMA20) make both scenarios possible. RSI is in the neutral zone (47.87) and volume at $137M is not supportive. MTF analysis shows mixed S/R levels (1D:1S/3R, 3D:1S/5R, 1W:3S/3R), creating a sensitive point for breakout or breakdown. Traders should be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

POL is currently trading at the $0.15 level, down -2.03% in the last 24 hours and stuck in the $0.15-$0.16 range. Although the overall trend is uptrend, the short-term technical picture is bearish: Price is below EMA20 ($0.16), Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, and resistance is strong at $0.18. RSI at 47.87 is neutral, no overbought/oversold; MACD histogram is negative and momentum is weak.

Key levels: Support at $0.1528 (strength score 83/100, fib 0.618 from recent lows), resistances at $0.1557 (66/100) and $0.1676 (62/100). MTF detected 15 strong levels – balanced on weekly (3S/3R), resistance-heavy on 3-day (1S/5R). Volume at $137.45M is moderate, could trigger sudden moves. News flow is calm, so technical levels will be decisive. This setup raises the question: uptrend continuation or short-term correction?

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Play Out?

The upside scenario is triggered by breaking the first resistance at $0.1557 for uptrend continuation. If price closes above here on a 4-hour candle, momentum increases and opens the path to $0.1676. What to watch: RSI breaking above 50 (momentum surge), MACD line crossing above signal line (bullish crossover), volume increasing +20%, and Supertrend turning green. Daily chart support at $0.1528 holds for no invalidation; this level is strong as recent swing low and fib support (83/100 score). MTF weekly 3S levels (near supports) provide uptrend protection. It remains weak without volume increase – for example, spot volume can be tracked on the POL Spot Analysis page.

In this scenario, short-term bearish signals (below EMA20, MACD negative) reverse and strengthen the uptrend. Traders should watch wicks at $0.1557 against false breakouts. On 1D chart, R:R ratio is around 1:2.5 to target (from current $0.15 to $0.1866).

Target Levels

First target $0.1676 (previous high, score 62/100), then extension target $0.1866 (score 28/100, fib 1.618 and 3D resistance). More aggressive: $0.20 psychological level (weekly uptrend target). Profit-taking strategy at each target: 50% at $0.1676, remainder at $0.1866. Invalidation: Close below $0.1528 invalidates the scenario and shifts to bear side.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario activates with rejection at $0.1557 resistance and break of $0.1528 support. It triggers if short-term bearish signals (MACD negative, Supertrend bearish) strengthen. What to watch: RSI dropping below 40 (weakening), MACD histogram deepening, volume increasing with downside (selling pressure), EMA20 bounce failure. 3D chart's 5R weight (resistance pressure) increases risk. Spot and futures divergence can be tracked with POL Futures Analysis – negative funding rate strengthens short bias.

Can be seen as correction within uptrend, but break of $0.1528 (strong support 83/100) leads to cascade to 1W supports. Weak without downside volume; accelerates if general market (BTC corr) falls. R:R from current level to $0.1213 around 1:3.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.1528 (critical support), if broken $0.14 psychological and target $0.1213 (score 38/100, fib 0.5 and 1D swing low). Deep correction to $0.11 (weekly support). Stop-loss at each level: Below $0.1528 for longs, above $0.1557 close for invalidation (shifts to bull side). MTF 1W 3S levels provide bottom protection.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision triggers: 1H/4H closes in $0.1557/0.1528 range. For bull: Volume spike + RSI>50 + MACD cross (green arrow). For bear: Downside volume + RSI<45 + EMA breakdown. Volume profile: Above daily $137M bullish, below bearish. MTF alignment required – 1D bull breakout should test 3D Rs. Analyze wicks for false moves; monitor general market sentiment (fear/greed index) and POL spot/futures spread. Manage risk with invalidation levels in every scenario.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

POL's setup at $0.15 offers traders preparation opportunity in both directions. Break of $0.1557 for uptrend continuation, break of $0.1528 for correction is key. Daily monitoring: RSI/MACD divergences, volume anomalies, MTF levels. Weekly close confirms uptrend. Regularly check POL Spot and Futures pages. Do your own analysis, market is dynamic!