RUNE Market Structure: January 24, 2026 Trend Analysis

RUNE market structure is currently dominated by a downtrend; LH/LL (lower highs, lower lows) pattern intact, but testing critical support levels increases the risk of a trend change.

Market Structure Overview

RUNE is trading at $0.59 as of January 24, 2026, with the overall market structure signaling a clear downtrend. The price, which has consolidated in the $0.58-$0.60 range with a 0.34% drop over the last 24 hours, continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.61), confirming the short-term bearish structure. Market structure analysis shows the dominance of the lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) bearish pattern instead of the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) bullish pattern. This is confirmed by successive lower highs and lower lows at recent swing points. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and $0.68 resistance forms a strong upper cap. RSI is at 44.05 in the neutral-bearish zone, and MACD's negative histogram supports declining momentum. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 1S/3R on 1W, reinforcing the bearish bias. There are no significant news developments, so pure price action structure is in the foreground. Investors are recommended to follow the RUNE Spot Analysis and RUNE Futures Analysis pages. This overview emphasizes that structural integrity has not yet been broken, but the $0.5868 support is critical – a break below here could trigger a bearish breakdown (BOS).

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For a bullish trend, the HH/HL structure must form: that is, successive higher highs and higher lows. This pattern is not currently observed in RUNE; the last swing high at $0.6253 was rejected, and the price pulled back to $0.5903 with lower highs. There is a potential bullish continuation target at $0.8638 (score:50/100), but breaking this level requires first breaking the $0.6253 resistance with a BOS (break of structure). A close above EMA20 ($0.61+) and RSI crossing 50+ could be early warning signals. In MTF, while there is a single strong support on the 1W timeframe, the overall resistance weight makes a bullish reversal difficult. If the price breaks $0.5903 with a daily close, a CHoCH (change of character) could form, and the HL pattern could begin – in this case, the $0.68 Supertrend resistance could be tested.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with the LH/LL structure: After the $0.8638 swing high, a lower high formed at $0.6253, followed by $0.5903; the lows confirm lower lows at $0.5640 and $0.5402. The current $0.59 price is consolidating within this bearish structure. A break of the $0.5868 swing low (score:77/100) will bring a bearish BOS, targeting $0.3690 (score:22). MACD's bearish histogram and RSI at 44 support declining momentum. On the 1D timeframe, 4 resistances vs 3 supports are favorable for bearish continuation. In this structure, trend continuation is more likely than short-term reversal; investors should watch for lower lows.

Structure Breakdown (BOS) Levels

BOS is key to breaking the current trend: For bullish BOS, a decisive close (e.g., 1D candle) above the $0.6253 swing high is required – this breaks the LH structure and leads to HH. Bearish BOS is a close below the $0.5868 support, strengthening the LL pattern and leading to $0.5402. Other critical levels: $0.5903 (near resistance, score:63), a break leads to quick downside; $0.5640 (secondary support, score:66). In MTF, 3D/1W resistances ($0.8638) are upper targets, but 1D support breakdown is the primary risk. After BOS, CHoCH should be recognized: Price should retest the structure after breaking it and then continue. These levels serve as an educational guide for trend invalidation: An upside BOS breaks the downtrend, while a downside BOS activates bearish targets.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.6253 (score:64/100, main resistance – key in LH formation), $0.5903 (score:63, near overhead), $0.8638 (score:62, major upper target). These highs indicate selling pressure in the downtrend; rejection at $0.6253 confirmed bearish continuation. A breakout would signal a bullish shift, but they currently act as resistance.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.5868 (score:77/100, strongest support – being tested in LL structure), $0.5402 (score:67, next downside), $0.5640 (score:66, intermediate level). These lows prevent HL formation, preserving the bearish structure. If $0.5868 holds, a short-term bounce is possible; a break leads to cascading lower lows. Swing points are ideal for stop-loss and entry: Support retests offer long opportunities, resistance rejections trigger shorts.

Bitcoin Correlation

Altcoins like RUNE are highly correlated with BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $89,649, with Supertrend bearish and dominance giving caution signals. BTC key supports $88,400/$86,626/$84,681 – a break here amplifies RUNE downside to $0.5402. Resistances $89,664/$91,188 – a BTC breakout could trigger RUNE $0.6253 BOS. Despite BTC's +0.08% over 24h being slightly positive, the overall downtrend is pressuring altcoins; short bias should be maintained on RUNE BTC pair. Below BTC $88,400, RUNE bearish targets activate; above, a relief rally is possible.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL intact, $0.5868 test critical during $0.59 consolidation. Bullish invalidation at $0.6253 BOS+, bearish continuation at $0.5868 BOS-. MTF resistance weight supports the downtrend, indicators (RSI/MACD) aligned. Educational note: Trend analysis is price action focused – follow pure structure when no news. Short-term $0.58-0.60 range, monitor BOS levels. Long-term return to $0.8638 requires major HH/HL, otherwise $0.3690 risk exists. Trade with careful risk management; structures are dynamic.