SOL Technical Analysis February 27, 2026: Will it Rise or Fall?

SOL is trading at $81.62 with a 5.83% drop in the last 24 hours and positioned in a short-term downtrend, while the positive histogram on MACD and RSI values near 40 indicate that both scenarios are possible. The price, squeezed between critical support and resistance levels, creates uncertainty for altcoins along with Bitcoin's downtrend.

Current Market Situation

SOL's current technical chart is giving mixed signals. The price is at $81.62 and showed a 5.83% drop in the $81.11-$88.29 range over the last 24 hours, with trading volume at $3.63 billion. The short-term trend is downward; the price is trading below EMA20 ($86.85) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with resistance positioned at $103.94. However, RSI at 40.23 is approaching oversold territory and MACD is showing positive histogram expansion indicating a bullish divergence. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels confirm that the price is squeezed between $78.35 support (strength score 74/100) and $87.46 resistance (80/100). There are no major news in the overall market context, but Bitcoin's downtrend is pressuring altcoins.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario to materialize, the $87.46 resistance (80/100 strength score) must first be clearly broken; if confirmed with a close above this level and increasing volume, short-term momentum shift begins. This breakout, supported by RSI moving above 50 and MACD histogram expansion, could pass EMA20 ($86.85) upward and flip the Supertrend signal. Breaking resistances on 1D and 3D charts in MTF (e.g., upper levels on 1W) paves the way for a broader rally. If Bitcoin tests its $66,216 resistance, SOL's positive correlation kicks in and volume increase (above $3.63B) strengthens this scenario. After the breakout, a quick retracement to the $84-$85 area may occur, but holding above $82 sustains bullish momentum. This scenario is invalidated by a break below $78.35 support.

Target Levels

First target $108.12 (64/100 strength score), followed by $117.71 main bullish target (31 score) according to Fibonacci extension levels. In the longer term, if 1W MTF resistances are surpassed, $130+ levels could come into play. The risk/reward ratio calculated from the current price is around 1:2.5, but traders should set their own stop-losses.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below $78.35 support (74/100 strength score); if confirmed with increased volume and RSI dropping below 30, the short-term downtrend accelerates. The Supertrend's bearish signal and staying below EMA20 could be reinforced by a potential bearish crossover on MACD. Bitcoin testing or breaking its $64,257 support increases pressure on SOL due to high correlation. In MTF analysis, weakening of 1D and 1W supports (e.g., 3D support break) creates a chain reaction. If volume reverses with a sharp spike without staying below $3.63B, panic selling could be triggered. This scenario is invalidated by a break above $87.46 resistance.

Protection Levels

First protection $67.50 (62/100 strength score), followed by main bearish target $45.40 (22 score). If 1W MTF supports are broken, levels below $50 should be monitored. The risk/reward ratio here is around 1:1.8, and traders should adjust position sizes accordingly.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bullish, volume-backed close above $87.46 + RSI above 50; for bearish, close below $78.35 + MACD crossover. Confirmation signals include 4-hour candle closes, volume profile, and MTF alignment. Bitcoin movements are critical; if BTC holds above $66K, the bullish scenario strengthens, but dropping below $64K increases bearish pressure. Traders should monitor SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages to manage leverage risks. Volatility is high in both scenarios—focus on early invalidation levels.

Bitcoin Correlation

SOL is an altcoin with high positive correlation to Bitcoin; BTC is currently at $65,515 with a 3.28% drop in a downtrend and Supertrend giving a bearish signal. BTC's main supports are $64,257, $62,510, and $60,000; breaking these could pull SOL down to test $78.35 support. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $66,216 resistance, SOL's bullish scenario is triggered, as altcoin rallies typically start with BTC leadership. Rising BTC Dominance increases bearish risk; traders should prioritize monitoring BTC levels, as SOL's independent movement is limited.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

In this period where SOL is at a critical juncture, the $78.35-$87.46 range is decisive; both scenarios are supported by technical indicators and BTC correlation. Monitoring points: Daily closes, RSI/MACD divergences, volume changes, and BTC $64K-$66K band. Traders should apply their own risk management and use MTF levels like a map—this analysis is designed to teach probabilities, and the market is open to surprises. Visit the relevant pages for detailed spot and futures data.