TAO Intraday Analysis: 29 January 2026 Short-Term Strategy - Support Test Focus

Today's short-term outlook: Consolidation around 233.80$, critical support test and resistance challenge expected. Watch for quick invalidation points in the 24-48 hour period.

Short-Term Market Outlook

TAO is currently trading at the 233.80$ level and tested the 233.70$-242.60$ range with a 1.60% drop over the last 24 hours. Volume remains at a medium level of 121M$, while the short-term trend is clearly downward. Price continues to stay below EMA20 (235.77$), strengthening the bearish short-term bias. RSI at 46.13 is in the neutral zone, but MACD's positive histogram may signal a slight momentum jump. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal at the 251.45$ resistance. 10 strong levels detected across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1D with 2 supports/0 resistances, 3D with 1 support/3 resistances, 1W with 2 supports/4 resistances. This MTF structure indicates downward pressure dominating in the short term. Volatility has been low over the last 24-48 hours, but BTC's downtrend is increasing risk in altcoins. For quick scalp opportunities, tight levels are critical: Invalidation below 231.82$ for downside, above 234.27$ as trigger for upside scenario.

Intraday Critical Levels

Nearby Support Zones

Immediate support zone at 231.8250$ (score: 71/100), close to intraday lows and can be tested quickly. On a break, the next level at 215.3000$ (score: 63/100) comes into play. These levels should be held tight; holding at 231.82$ is key for upside rebound, below it short-term downside accelerates. For scalp traders, watch the 231.82$-233.70$ range for quick bounces, invalidation below 231.50$.

Nearby Resistance Zones

Near resistance at 234.2749$ (score: 82/100), close to EMA20 and today's range upper band. A break here sparks momentum, but challenging under the current bearish Supertrend. Upper resistance target at 242.60$ intraday high, then 251.45$ Supertrend. Volume increase required on resistance tests, otherwise fakeout risk is high. Risk management: For longs, wait above 234.27$, stop below 233.70$.

Momentum and Speed Analysis

Short-term momentum mixed: RSI at 46 not near oversold but neutral, MACD histogram positive though overall bearish EMA position dominant. Speed analysis shows low volatility; ATR suggests intraday swings around 5-7$. Upside speed requires 234.27$ break, downside 231.82$ break adds momentum. On 4H timeframe, within downtrend channel, upper band at 235.77$ testable but sustained break weak. For scalping, watch momentum divergences: Bullish RSI div sets up long at 231.82$, opposite for short. Overall bias: Bearish, tight stops mandatory for high-risk short-term trading.

Short-Term Scenarios

Upside Scenario

Clear break and close above 234.2749$ (with volume increase) triggers upside scenario. First target 242.60$ intraday high, then 251.45$ Supertrend and 258.8500$ (score:26). Trigger: 15min close above 234.27$. Invalidation: Drop below 231.82$. In this scenario, if BTC stabilizes, TAO accelerates with altcoin rotation, +5-8% potential in 24 hours. However, plan early profitable exits at low-score targets.

Downside Scenario

Close below 231.8250$ accelerates downtrend, first target 215.3000$, then 191.6088$ downside target. Trigger: 231.82$ break, aggressive on volume-less drop. Invalidation: Return above 234.27$. If synchronized with BTC downtrend, sharp selling in alts, -10%+ risk in 48 hours. For short-term traders, scalp shorts around 234$, stop above 235$.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 88,587$ with -0.94% in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. TAO highly correlated to BTC (altcoin average +0.85%), if BTC supports at 88,626$/87,423$/86,075$ break, TAO tests 231.82$ rapidly via cascade effect. If BTC resistances at 88,944$/90,722$ stabilize above, TAO gets breathing room for upside scenario. Key watch: BTC below 88,626$ strengthens TAO short bias, above 88,944$ light rotation opportunity. Dominance increase caution for alts.

Daily Summary and Watch Points

Today's focus: 231.8250$ support test and 234.2749$ resistance challenge. Key triggers: Upside 234.27$ break, downside 231.82$ break. BTC 88k band critical. Stays range-bound without volume increase, reduce position size in low volatility. Short-term trades high risk; max 1-2% risk in capital management, exit with quick invalidations. Watch points: 231.82$/234.27$/BTC 88,626$. No news flow, technicals dominant. Details in TAO Spot Analysis and TAO Futures Analysis.