Will ETC Rise or Fall? January 22, 2026 Scenario Analysis

ETC is currently trading at a critical equilibrium point at $11.57. Although the downtrend dominates, the RSI approaching the 38 level and balanced support/resistance levels across multiple timeframes (MTF) make both bullish and bearish scenarios possible. Traders should watch for clear breakouts in this narrow band between $11.15 support and $12.01 resistance.

Current Market Situation

ETC is trading at $11.57 with a 2.20% decline over the last 24 hours (range: $11.41 - $11.83). Volume is stable around $44M, but the trend is downward. RSI at 38.53 is approaching oversold while in the neutral zone; MACD shows a negative histogram and price is below EMA20 ($12.32). Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, with nearby resistance at $13.51. MTF analysis (1D/3D/1W) identifies 12 strong levels: 1D has 1 support/3 resistances, 3D has 1S/2R, 1W has 3S/3R balance. This mixed structure increases market uncertainty and leaves the door open to both directions. Critical support at $11.15 (81/100 score), resistances at $11.60 (60/100), $12.01 (73/100), and $14.11 (63/100).

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

The bullish scenario is primarily triggered by a close above the $11.60 pivot and a clear break of the $12.01 resistance (73/100). RSI recovering toward 50 and MACD histogram approaching zero would support momentum. Volume increase is essential; a breakout without exceeding the current $44M could be fake. If EMA20 ($12.32) is surpassed on the 1D chart, Supertrend flips bullish. If 1W supports (around $11.15) hold in MTF, buyers enter. If BTC stabilizes or turns up, ETC's rally accelerates due to beta effect. Invalidated by: close below $11.15.

Target Levels

First target $14.11 (63/100), followed by $15.92 (31 score). Fibonacci extensions and past resistances support these targets. Post-$12.01 breakout, R/R ratio could reach 1:3, but breaking $13.51 Supertrend resistance is key. Check detailed charts on the ETC Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario activates with a close below the strong $11.15 support (81/100). If RSI drops below 30 and MACD bearish divergence strengthens, selling accelerates. Look for volume spike; low-volume drops bring buying reactions. Staying below EMA20 and continued bearish Supertrend are negative. MTF shows abundance of 1D/3D resistances (total 8R), rejecting upside attempts. BTC dropping below $88K pressures ETC. Invalidated by: close above $12.01.

Protection Levels

First protection below $11.15, target $7.95 (22 score). Lower levels accompanied by $10.50 and 1W supports. Risk/reward ratio around 1:2, stop-losses above $11.60. Evaluate leveraged positions with ETC Futures Analysis.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision moment is in the $11.15-$12.01 band. For bullish: $12.01 volume breakout + RSI>45 + MACD zero crossover. For bearish: $11.15 break + RSI<35 + volume spike. Daily closes are decisive; doji or engulfing patterns on 4H candles give early warnings. Invalidation level clear in each scenario: below $11.15 for bulls, above $12.01 for bears. Traders should size positions according to their risk profile and prepare for both outcomes.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89.5K (-0.80%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. ETC highly correlated to BTC (beta ~1.2); if BTC loses $88.3K support, ETC's $11.15 break accelerates. Conversely, BTC breaking $90.4K resistance triggers ETC upside. Watch: BTC supports $88.3K/$86.7K (downside risk), resistances $90.4K/$92.5K (for altcoin rally). If BTC dominance rises, ETC remains under pressure.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

ETC's path will shape on $11.15-$12.01 breakouts. Upside to $15.92, downside to $7.95 – both aligned with MTF levels. Watchlist: 1) Daily closes, 2) RSI/MACD divergences, 3) Volume anomalies, 4) BTC $88K-$90K movement. This analysis provides a framework for traders to make their own decisions; market is volatile, always use stop-loss. Follow ETC Spot and Futures pages for updates.