Will HYPE Rise or Fall? January 23, 2026 Scenario Analysis

HYPE is positioned at a critical juncture at the $21.26 level. While the short-term downtrend continues, its RSI of 35.32 approaching the oversold region makes both scenarios possible: recovery with a strong support hold or deepening with a breakdown.

Current Market Situation

HYPE is trading at $21.26 with a %3.09 decline in the last 24 hours (range: $21.13 - $22.23). Volume remains at a moderate level of $298.41M, while the overall trend is downward. Technical indicators are giving bearish signals: RSI 35.32 (near oversold), MACD confirming selling pressure with a negative histogram, price trading below EMA20 ($23.97). Supertrend is bearish and shows $26.33 resistance. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 11 strong levels: 1D (1S/2R), 3D (1S/1R), 1W (4S/3R) – support weight in higher timeframes. Critical support $20.4744 (score 80/100), resistances $23.3050 (60/100) and $38.8188 (65/100). This setup offers a consolidation open to volatility; high breakout potential in both directions.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

The bullish scenario is triggered primarily by a strong close above $21.26 and a break of the $23.3050 resistance. After surpassing EMA20 ($23.97), the Supertrend resistance at $26.33 is tested. Positive divergence in RSI (RSI rising while price falls) and a MACD histogram crossover above the zero line confirm momentum shift. Volume increase is essential; low-volume breakouts may be fake. In MTF, holds at 1W supports (around $20.47) attract buyers from higher timeframes. Stability or recovery in Bitcoin supports an altcoin rally. This scenario becomes invalid if there's a weekly close below $20.4744.

Target Levels

First target $31.8139 (score 30), aligning with Fibonacci extension 0.618. Next, $38.8188 main resistance; if broken, it opens the psychological $45+ zone. R/R ratio from current levels around 1:2.5; after $23.30 breakout, stop can be trailed below $20.47. Watch for: daily green candles and volume explosion.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario activates with the break of $20.4744 support (score 80/100). If this level is violated, new lows in MACD and RSI dropping below 30 accelerate momentum. Supertrend bearish signal strengthens, staying below EMA20 triggers short positions. Increase in selling pressure volume is critical; BTC decline heightens correlation. In MTF, holds at 1D/3D resistances (e.g., $23.30 rejection) prevent short squeeze. No recent news, but overall market risk-off mode (BTC downtrend) pressures altcoins. This scenario becomes invalid if there's a daily close above $23.3050.

Protection Levels

First protection after $20.4744 break is intermediate support at $18.50, main target $12.4098 (score 22). Deeper 1W supports may be tested. R/R from current levels 1:1.8; for longs, stop-loss below $20.47 is mandatory. Watch for: series of red candles and downward volume spikes.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: For bullish, $23.3050/EMA20 breakout + RSI divergence; for bearish, $20.4744 break + BTC weakness. Confirmation signals: Daily/4H closes, volume confirmation, and MACD crossover. Volatility is high; beware of fakeouts. Follow real-time data from HYPE Spot Analysis and HYPE Futures Analysis pages. Manage risk with early invalidation levels in both scenarios.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,148 in downtrend (%-0.72 24h), Supertrend bearish. Main supports $88,363 / $86,788; if broken, cascade effect pressures HYPE below $20.47. If BTC resistances $90,046 / $92,311 are surpassed, HYPE bullish scenario strengthens (altcoin rotation). Rising dominance crushes HYPE; if BTC stabilizes, HYPE can move independently. Watch BTC below $88k – HYPE short bias increases.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

HYPE's $20.47 - $23.30 range is the decision point; breakout direction determines the scenario. Monitoring list: 1) $20.4744 hold vs break, 2) Volume change, 3) RSI/MACD divergence, 4) BTC $88k/90k movement. This analysis teaches traders to prepare according to their own risk profile – market is open to surprises. Check HYPE Spot and Futures pages for daily updates.