Will KMNO Rise or Fall? January 24, 2026 Scenario Analysis

KMNO is trading in a critical squeeze zone at the $0.05 level. While RSI at 33 gives an oversold signal, the bearish MACD and Supertrend structure maintain the downside momentum; this creates a crossroads where both an upward bounce and a downward breakout are equally likely.

Current Market Situation

KMNO is currently trading at the $0.05 level and continuing its downtrend with a 2.37% decline over the last 24 hours. Technical indicators are predominantly bearish: although RSI at 33.31 is approaching the oversold region, MACD shows a negative histogram and the price remains below EMA20 ($0.05). The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and marking $0.06 as resistance. Volume is at a moderate $1.97M level, while the range is narrow ($0.05-$0.05), reflecting the squeeze.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 3 supports/3 resistances balance on 1W. Critical support at $0.0457 (strength score 73/100), resistances at $0.0484 (75/100), $0.0507 (62/100), and $0.0603 (65/100). This structure indicates the price is in a consolidation that can break in either direction; traders should be prepared for volatility.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $0.0484 resistance (strong level, 75/100) is required first. This breakout gains strength if supported by an RSI reversal from 33 (divergence formation) and a positive turn in the MACD histogram. A clear volume increase (above $2M) and settlement above EMA20 ($0.05) confirm a short-term bull trend. Sequential breaks of resistances in 1D and 3D timeframes (e.g., $0.0507 followed by $0.0603) accelerate momentum. Stability or slight rise in Bitcoin (above $89,664) supports this scenario; otherwise, altcoin rotation remains weak.

Invalidation criterion: The bullish scenario is invalidated if price loses the $0.0457 support. Traders should wait for the $0.0484 breakout for long positions and place stop-loss below $0.0457.

Target Levels

First target $0.0507 (62/100), then $0.0603 (65/100), and main bull target $0.0644 (47 score). These levels are derived from MTF resistances, offering up to 28% R/R potential. In the longer term, swing highs before testing 1W timeframe supports should be monitored.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the $0.0457 support (73/100 strong). This breakout is reinforced by new lows in MACD and RSI dropping below 30 (from oversold to bearish momentum). Continuation of the Supertrend bearish structure and a volume spike ($2.5M+ selling volume) create a cascade effect. A slip in Bitcoin below $88,400 or dominance increase (above 55%) increases selling pressure on altcoins like KMNO. In MTF, the 3 support levels on 1W are open to sequential tests, but the overall downtrend dominates.

Invalidation: A break above $0.0484 resistance cancels the bearish scenario. For short positions, wait for the $0.0457 breakout, with stop above $0.0484.

Downside Targets

First target around $0.0400 intermediate support, main bear target $0.0310 (20 score). This represents a 38% drop from current price and is calculated from MTF supports. On the way to lower levels, 3D/1W supports ($0.0350s) should be monitored; R/R ratio offers similar risk to the bull scenario.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bullish, close above $0.0484 + volume increase + RSI divergence; for bearish, close below $0.0457 + BTC weakness. Confirmation signals include MACD crossover, Supertrend flip, and 4H candle formations (bullish engulfing vs. bearish breakdown). Follow real-time data from KMNO Spot Analysis and KMNO Futures Analysis pages. Volatility is high in both scenarios; position sizing and risk management are critical.

Bitcoin Correlation

KMNO is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $89,649 with Supertrend bearish. If BTC holds $88,400 support, KMNO has rotation potential, but a break below $86,626 triggers altcoin selling. BTC resistances at $89,664-$91,188 should be monitored: BTC rally supports KMNO bull scenario, while dominance increase (above $55) is bearish. BTC $84,681 is the main support; a break here accelerates KMNO to $0.0310s.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

The $0.0457-$0.0484 range in KMNO is the decision point; the breakout direction will determine the scenario. Monitoring list: 1) Volume profile, 2) RSI/MACD divergences, 3) BTC $88,400-$89,664 movement, 4) MTF levels. Traders should be prepared for both outcomes, waiting for technical confirmation instead of emotional decisions. Market is dynamic; follow spot/futures pages for updates.