Analysts Say Gold’s Surge Could Imply Bitcoin Price Near $644,000 by 2028 Halving

• Analyst projection: Bitcoin could equal half of gold’s market cap, implying an equivalent BTC price of ~$644,000.

• Gold’s YTD gain (~50%) and safe-haven flows are cited as key drivers shifting investor allocation toward crypto.

• Data points: gold > $4,000/oz, Bitcoin above $126,000; VanEck and industry analysts provided the equivalence estimate.

Bitcoin price prediction: analysts link gold’s near-$4,000 peak to a $644,000 BTC target by 2028 halving — read expert analysis and key takeaways.

What is the Bitcoin price prediction after gold hit nearly $4,000?

Bitcoin price prediction: Analysts estimate Bitcoin could be worth an equivalent of about $644,000 if it reaches half of gold’s market capitalization after gold’s rise above $4,000 per ounce. The view ties BTC valuation to changing investor demand and store-of-value substitution ahead of the 2028 halving.

How does gold’s surge affect Bitcoin valuations?

Gold’s record highs amplify comparisons between the two assets and provide a market-cap framework for valuation. VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, said that if Bitcoin reached half of gold’s market cap, the equivalent BTC price would be roughly $644,000 based on current gold pricing. Short-term flows into gold, a weaker US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty have lifted gold ~50% year-to-date, widening the narrative for alternative stores of value.

Younger investors and emerging-market respondents increasingly prefer Bitcoin as a store of value, according to industry surveys cited by analysts. That generational preference supports the thesis that some portion of gold’s demand could shift to digital assets over time.

Source: Matthew Sigel

Why do analysts compare Bitcoin to gold?

Analysts compare Bitcoin to gold because both are viewed as stores of value and hedges against fiat weakness. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and increasing institutional custody infrastructure make it a digital analogue to gold for many investors. VanEck and other market participants cite market-cap parity scenarios to quantify potential upside under different adoption assumptions.

What are alternative expert views on the outlook?

Opinions vary: veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that gold may still climb further before any correction, while critic Peter Schiff noted that Bitcoin, priced in gold terms, remains below its prior gold-denominated highs. Meanwhile, Joe Consorti of Bitcoin custodian Theya suggested gold’s rise lifts Bitcoin’s “fair value floor” significantly, noting a much higher theoretical valuation under some models.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Bitcoin realistically reach $644,000 by 2028?

Reaching $644,000 depends on Bitcoin capturing a material share of global store-of-value demand and maintaining adoption and liquidity growth. The $644,000 figure is a market-cap equivalence estimate, not a guaranteed forecast; it assumes Bitcoin attains half of gold’s market capitalization under current gold pricing.

How do halving events affect Bitcoin’s price?

Halvings reduce Bitcoin’s new supply issuance by half, historically contributing to tighter supply dynamics and positive price pressure over months to years following the event. Market conditions and demand ultimately determine price movements after a halving.

What role do generational preferences play in BTC vs gold?

Surveys and on-chain custody trends indicate younger investors prefer digital assets for savings and store-of-value roles. This shift can reallocate a portion of future demand away from physical gold toward Bitcoin, reinforcing valuation comparisons that tie BTC to gold market size.

Key Takeaways

• Valuation link: Analysts estimate a $644,000 BTC value if Bitcoin reaches half of gold’s market cap.
• Market context: Gold’s rally above $4,000 and ~50% YTD gains are shaping store-of-value discussions.
• What to watch: halving cycles, institutional adoption, generational preference surveys, and macro flows.

Conclusion

This analysis ties a clear Bitcoin price prediction to gold’s recent surge, using a market-cap equivalence framework and expert commentary from industry analysts. While the $644,000 figure is a model-based projection rather than a certainty, it highlights how store-of-value dynamics and investor preferences could reshape BTC valuations ahead of the 2028 halving. Monitor adoption and macro indicators for timely signals.