- ARK Invest’s chief futurist recently questioned the ability of Apple and Google to effectively introduce high-performance AI features given their current strategies.
- Big Tech giants like Apple and Google’s parent company, Alphabet, are deploying AI as a means to sustain their industry dominance, according to ARK Invest.
- On October 1, ARK released a white paper addressing the disruptive potential of AI, elaborating on its framework to identify disruptive technologies.
Discover how Big Tech is navigating the AI landscape and what it means for their future positioning in the technological hierarchy.
ARK Invest’s Perspective on AI Initiatives by Big Tech
ARK Invest’s latest white paper, authored by the chief futurist Brett Winton, delves into how major technology firms like Apple and Alphabet are attempting to fortify their AI capabilities. According to the report, these companies plan to integrate artificial intelligence in ways that may help them maintain market leadership but also expose potential strategic vulnerabilities.
The Remarkable Cost Decline of AI
AI technology has experienced unprecedented cost reductions, making it one of the most rapidly evolving technologies. Winton noted that AI has the steepest cost decline curve of any historical technology, which has allowed it to permeate new and underserved markets. He highlighted how the operational costs for AI models have been halving approximately every four months, a trend that he believes will persist throughout the decade.
Comparative Insights: AI vs. Other Technologies
Drawing parallels between AI and Moore’s Law in the semiconductor sector, Winton contended that AI’s advancements are surging at a rate four to six times quicker. This stark pace suggests a monumental shift in how we perceive and utilize AI compared to previous technologies.
The Role of Startups in De-risking AI Technology
Winton posits that major companies like Google and Apple often let startups tackle the initial risky development phases of new technologies. For example, Google delayed the public release of its large language model until OpenAI had been active in the market for over three years. Even then, Google’s performance lagged in comparison, costing 40% more per unit than OpenAI’s most advanced models.
Strategic Delays and Their Implications
Despite trailing behind in the AI race, Google and Apple have strategic reasons for their deliberate pace. Apple, expected to release its first AI-driven products in the fall of 2024, emphasizes the importance of reliability and reputation, arguing that prematurely releasing a flawed product could be more damaging.
Challenges and Considerations
Winton raises the question of whether such tactics, which prioritize stability over innovation, could hamper Big Tech’s ability to introduce universally performant AI systems. He argues that these companies prefer technology that is less disruptive, potentially to their own detriment.
Conclusion
In sum, the evolving AI strategies of Big Tech companies like Apple and Google illustrate a cautious yet calculated approach to integrating disruptive technologies. While their deliberate pace allows for controlled development, it may also put them at a disadvantage as more agile startups push the boundaries of AI capabilities. The coming years will reveal how these strategic choices impact their market dominance and technological leadership.
