Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over: he argues that a permanently increased money supply and broader monetary easing make historic halving-led peaks unreliable, and that cheaper money will sustain demand for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
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Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer apply
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Monetary easing and lower interest rates increase liquidity for risk assets.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs, liquidity shifts, and central-bank policy are altering historical patterns.
Bitcoin four-year cycle may be over — increased money supply supports BTC. Read why this changes historic halving patterns and what investors should watch.
Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle over?
The Bitcoin four-year cycle may be ending according to Arthur Hayes, who argues that a sustained increase in global money supply and renewed monetary easing remove the historical conditions that produced halving-driven peaks. This shifts how traders should assess timing and risk.
Why does Arthur Hayes say increased money supply benefits Bitcoin?
Hayes points to lower interest rates and global policy aimed at “running the economy hot” as reasons liquidity will rise. More cash and cheaper credit typically lift risk-on assets, and Bitcoin has historically tracked such liquidity trends alongside equities.
How have recent events changed the cycle dynamics?
Key structural changes include the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, altered liquidity conditions, and active monetary policy from major central banks. These factors can produce price moves before and after halvings, deviating from the prior four-year pattern.
What evidence supports this view?
Hayes notes that Federal Reserve rate cuts and policy stances in major economies are making money cheaper and more plentiful. He cites observable impacts: increased cash flows, supportive equity markets, and elevated interest among institutional buyers.
Which experts agree or disagree?
Gabe Selby of CF Benchmarks suggests current cycle valuations are still 20–50% undervalued relative to liquidity. Other analysts say the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed timing patterns. Adam McCarthy of Kaiko cautions that crypto is still young and patterns remain uncertain.
How should investors respond?
- Reassess timing assumptions: Avoid relying solely on past halving-based schedules.
- Monitor liquidity indicators: Watch central-bank guidance, money supply metrics, and ETF flows.
- Maintain risk management: Use position sizing and diversification to manage volatility.
Comparison: Traditional Cycle vs. Current Environment
| Factor | Traditional Cycle | Current Environment |
|---|---|---|
| Primary driver | Halving-driven scarcity and market sentiment | Monetary policy, liquidity expansion, institutional flows |
| Price peak timing | Typically year after halving | Peaks possible before or after halving |
| Crash magnitude | Often 70–80% declines post-peak | Depends on liquidity and macro policy, less predictable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Bitcoin still respond to halvings?
Halvings remain a supply-side event, but their price impact is now mediated by liquidity, ETF availability, and macro policy. Expect more variability in outcomes than in prior cycles.
What macro signals should traders watch?
Watch central-bank rate actions, statements on monetary easing, money supply trends, and institutional flow data for clues on demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
- Cycle re-evaluation: The Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer be a reliable timing tool due to changing macro and market structures.
- Monetary policy matters: Broader monetary easing and increased money supply can sustain Bitcoin demand.
- Actionable insight: Combine liquidity metrics, ETF flow data, and macro signals rather than relying solely on halving timelines.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes argues that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is effectively over as an era of increased money supply and global monetary easing reshapes price drivers. Investors should refocus on liquidity, policy signals, and institutional flows to gauge Bitcoin’s trajectory and manage risk accordingly.
Published by COINOTAG on 2025-10-09. Last updated 2025-10-09.
