Bitcoin Tests $76K Support as Halving Clock Counts Down, TD Cowen Lifts MSTR to $400

Bitcoin News

The countdown to Bitcoin's next mining reward halving has crossed a meaningful threshold, with fewer than 100,000 blocks remaining before the issuance rate drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. That programmed supply cut, expected around April 12, 2028, is reigniting attention on a historical pattern in which Bitcoin bear markets typically bottom 12 to 18 months before each halving event. Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt has flagged October 2026 as a plausible trough window if that cycle dynamic holds. The setup leaves room for further downside in the near term, but it frames the current weakness as a late-cycle shakeout rather than a structural breakdown of the asset.

Derivatives desk commentary places the immediate battleground for Bitcoin in a tightly defined zone. Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot identified the $76,000 to $77,000 band as the most important support area in the current structure, warning that a clean breakdown would open a path toward the $70,000 to $72,000 region. If sellers force a deeper unwind, the next major demand pocket sits near $60,000. Spot is already pressing into that critical zone, trading around $76,741 with intraday volatility elevated. Macro pressures including firm Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and persistent spot ETF outflows continue to weigh on positioning across the order book.

Regulatory developments are adding a constructive layer beneath the price action. Reports indicate that the SEC is preparing a formal framework for the trading of tokenized stocks, a move that would create a clearer rulebook for representing traditional equities on public blockchains. Such a framework would directly accelerate the push from major Wall Street firms to migrate parts of the securities lifecycle onto on-chain rails, deepening the institutional pipeline that has anchored Bitcoin's broader narrative through this cycle. Tokenization remains one of the few crypto verticals attracting unambiguous bipartisan attention in Washington, and a published proposal would mark the first concrete step toward codified standards for the segment.

A major sell-side desk has reaffirmed its conviction in the leading corporate Bitcoin treasury. TD Cowen lifted its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400 from $395, keeping a Buy rating and citing accelerating Bitcoin per share alongside an opportunistic balance sheet maneuver. Analyst Lance Vitanza and associate Jonnathan Navarrete raised 2026 BTC Yield expectations to 19.8% from 18.2% and BTC Dollar Gain estimates to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion. Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares climbed to 2.21x as of May 17, up from 1.95x at the end of 2025, indicating that treasury accumulation continues to outpace dilution from successive capital raises.

Strategy's footprint on the supply schedule reached another milestone over the past week. The company now holds 843,738 BTC after acquiring 24,869 BTC for roughly $2.01 billion between May 11 and May 17, the largest single-week purchase of 2026 and second only to a 34,164 BTC buy executed in April. The latest stack pushes corporate holdings past 4% of the 21 million Bitcoin circulating supply cap, an absorption rate that materially tightens the float available to spot markets. Preferred equity issuance funded most of the second-quarter activity, with roughly $1.95 billion raised against minimal common stock dilution and nearly all proceeds routed straight into spot accumulation.

The second driver behind the upgraded outlook was a balance sheet cleanup that improves the credit profile without sacrificing treasury growth. Strategy repurchased roughly $1.5 billion of out-of-the-money convertible notes at an approximate 8% discount to face value, reducing fully diluted share exposure while extending the runway on future refinancing needs. The transaction was framed by analysts as a clear positive for both equity and credit holders, removing latent dilution and trimming long-dated liabilities at favorable terms. MSTR closed at $166.63 on Monday, sitting roughly 63% below its 52-week high of $455.90, leaving the new $400 target implying upside of more than 140% from current trading levels.

Spot Bitcoin is trading near $76,741, down about 0.67% on the day, with the $76,883 pivot sitting essentially on price and the $75,039 shelf as the next defense. A breakdown there exposes $72,673, broadly aligning with the Deribit risk map. Momentum is mixed: RSI at 45.19 sits below neutral but above oversold, while the MACD remains in bearish configuration on a sideways trend. Reclaiming $77,916 and stretching toward $79,426 would shift the short-term bias higher, with $82,721 the upside target for trend repair. A daily close beneath $75,000 on expanding volume would invalidate the constructive halving-cycle scenario.