Bitcoin Below $100K on ETF Outflows, Retail Signals Potential Recovery

• Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June 23, triggering widespread liquidations.

• U.S. retail investors are accumulating BTC at discounted prices, boosting the Coinbase Premium Index toward bullish levels.

• The Puell Multiple at 0.9 indicates undervaluation, historically leading to price rebounds; ETF outflows hit $577 million this week.

Bitcoin price analysis: Explore why BTC fell below $100K due to institutional selling and liquidations. Discover recovery signs from retail demand and on-chain data. Stay informed on crypto trends—read now for expert insights.

Why Did Bitcoin Drop Below $100,000?

Bitcoin price drop below $100,000 was driven by intense selling pressure, including $492 million in liquidations over 24 hours and significant ETF outflows. Institutions offloaded positions to lock in gains, pushing the asset to its lowest level since June 23. Despite the downturn, initial buying interest emerged as traders eyed support levels for potential bargains.

How Is Retail Confidence Returning to the Bitcoin Market?

U.S. retail investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin following the recent decline, with increased buying on major exchanges. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures price differences between U.S. and global platforms, has risen to -0.9, nearing a neutral-to-positive threshold that often precedes bullish shifts. This uptick reflects growing conviction among individual traders, who are accumulating Bitcoin at what they view as attractive prices during the dip. Data from on-chain analytics platforms highlight this trend, with transaction volumes on retail-focused exchanges climbing steadily. Historically, such retail participation has provided a buffer against deeper corrections, stabilizing prices when institutional flows weaken. Experts note that this dynamic could accelerate if broader economic signals improve, drawing more sidelined capital back into the market.

Source: CryptoQuant

The overall market is aligning with this retail resurgence. The Puell Multiple, a critical on-chain metric for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation relative to mining rewards, stood at approximately 0.9 during the latest session. This level, per historical patterns observed in data from analytics firms, suggests the asset is in an accumulation phase, with room for growth before reaching overvalued territory around 6. Such readings have often preceded multi-week rallies, providing a technical foundation for optimism amid the current price action.

Historical Levels and Bitcoin’s Recovery Potential

The selloff drove Bitcoin toward the 365-day Moving Average cross, a reliable indicator for spotting reversal points in the asset’s history. This zone has repeatedly served as a launchpad for upward movements. For example, in April, after a selloff tied to policy shifts under former U.S. President Donald Trump, Bitcoin bounced strongly from this level. A parallel rebound occurred in August 2024, when the cryptocurrency recovered sharply post-dip.

Source: TradingView

This support area also coincides with the lower Bollinger Band, another tool that has historically triggered rebounds. If momentum builds from current levels, Bitcoin could aim for the upper band near $115,682. Technical analysts emphasize that confluence of these indicators strengthens the case for a near-term upswing, provided external pressures ease. On-chain volume data supports this view, showing increased holder accumulation rather than panic selling, which bodes well for sustained recovery.

Institutional Selling and Its Impact on Bitcoin Prices

While positive signals emerge from retail and on-chain metrics, institutional activity presents a notable challenge to Bitcoin’s rebound. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen persistent outflows since the week’s start, exerting additional downward force on prices. According to data from SosoValue, these funds experienced withdrawals totaling around $577 million, the highest single-day figure since July 1.

Source: SosoValue

With total assets under management reaching $134.5 billion, ongoing institutional divestment risks capping Bitcoin’s upside and prolonging volatility. This pattern aligns with broader market caution, where large holders prioritize profit-taking over new positions. Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEX, highlighted these concerns in recent commentary, stating that external factors could exacerbate the situation. “If the U.S. government shutdown continues and the Federal Reserve fails to deliver a clear stance on interest rates, the likelihood of Bitcoin retesting the $100,000 level remains high.” She further noted that policy uncertainty and fading institutional appetite might sustain choppy trading conditions in the short term. Despite these headwinds, the balance between retail inflows and technical supports suggests Bitcoin’s price drop below $100,000 may mark a temporary low rather than a prolonged bearish phase.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Caused the Recent Bitcoin Liquidations Exceeding $492 Million?

The surge in liquidations stemmed from leveraged positions being wiped out as Bitcoin’s price fell below $100,000, triggered by profit-taking from institutions and ETF outflows. Derivatives data shows this as the largest 24-hour event recently, highlighting heightened market sensitivity to downside moves and the role of over-leveraged trading in amplifying volatility.

Is Bitcoin Poised for Recovery After Dropping Below $100K?

Yes, early indicators like rising retail accumulation on Coinbase and a Puell Multiple of 0.9 suggest undervaluation and potential rebound. Historical patterns at the 365-day MA cross have led to rallies, though institutional outflows could delay full momentum—watch for sustained buying to confirm upside.

Key Takeaways

• Intense Selloff and Liquidations: Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 triggered $492 million in liquidations, driven by institutional profit-taking and ETF outflows of $577 million.
• Retail and On-Chain Bullishness: U.S. investors are accumulating via Coinbase, with the Premium Index improving; Puell Multiple at 0.9 signals accumulation phase with historical rebound potential.
• Technical Support Levels: Prices hit the 365-day MA and lower Bollinger Band, zones that often spark recoveries—targeting $115,682 if momentum builds, but monitor institutional flows.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin price drop below $100,000 underscores the interplay between institutional caution and retail resilience in the cryptocurrency market. With on-chain metrics like the Puell Multiple indicating undervaluation and historical supports aligning for a bounce, recovery appears feasible despite ETF outflow pressures. As global economic uncertainties persist, staying attuned to these dynamics will be key for investors navigating Bitcoin’s path forward—consider monitoring key levels for entry opportunities in this evolving landscape.