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- On-chain data suggests a Bitcoin indicator is currently mirroring the same trend that led to the top of the bull run in 2021.
- Bitcoin long-term holders are currently showcasing a trend that’s reminiscent of 2021.
- The “long-term holders” (LTHs) are Bitcoin investors who have been keeping their coins dormant for more than 155 days.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders are showing a trend similar to 2021, suggesting a potential peak for the latest bull run. This analysis is based on on-chain data and historical precedents.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Distribution Appears To Be Ending
As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a post on X, the BTC long-term holders are currently showcasing a trend that’s reminiscent of 2021. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) are Bitcoin investors who have been keeping their coins dormant (that is, not transferring or selling them from their wallet) for more than 155 days. These investors usually don’t react to events in the wider market, like a rally or crash, but this year’s price surge towards the new all-time high (ATH) has forced even these HODLers into selling.
Bitcoin LTHs and Market Trends
The chart below shows the trend in the total Bitcoin supply held by the addresses belonging to the LTH cohort over the last few years. As the graph shows, Bitcoin LTHs were accumulating between the May 2021 crash and this year’s rally. With this rise towards the new ATH, though, the supply of these HOLDers has started observing a downtrend instead. This trend is similar to what was observed in 2021. The LTHs ending their distribution then meant a top for the cryptocurrency. A similar pattern was also witnessed during the 2017 bull run.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $62,700 level, down almost 2% over the past week. The price of the asset appears to have shot up over the past day.
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Conclusion
The latest flat movement in the LTH supply could suggest a potential peak for the latest bull run. This is only if, of course, the LTH distribution has truly ended. It now remains to be seen if the latest trend shift in the Bitcoin LTH supply corresponds to the former or the latter phase.
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