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Bitcoin’s upcoming $20 billion options expiry on June 27 is setting the stage for a potential rally toward $110,000, as bullish sentiment gains momentum.
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Despite a recent 1.72% dip over the past month, Bitcoin’s price recovery and the current options open interest suggest a stronger foothold for bulls heading into the expiry.
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According to COINOTAG, the open interest for call options at $11.2 billion significantly outweighs put options at $8.8 billion, signaling a bullish tilt in market positioning.
Bitcoin’s $20B options expiry highlights bullish momentum with call options dominance, setting the stage for a potential rally to $110,000 amid favorable market conditions.
Market Dynamics Favor Bitcoin Bulls Ahead of $20 Billion Options Expiry
As the June 27 options expiry approaches, Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring open interest data that reveals a pronounced bullish bias. With $11.2 billion in call options compared to $8.8 billion in put options, the market is signaling confidence in upward price movement. Notably, a substantial portion of put options—approximately $7.1 billion—are concentrated at strike prices below $101,000, indicating that bearish bets require a significant price drop to become profitable.
This positioning suggests that bulls are poised to capitalize on any sustained price recovery above key support levels. The recent rebound in Bitcoin’s price, despite a 1.72% decline over the past 30 days, has strengthened the case for a rally, particularly if the price can hold above the critical $105,000 threshold. Such a development could catalyze momentum toward new all-time highs, driven by the unwinding of bearish hedges and increased call option activity.
Federal Reserve Signals and Their Impact on Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Market sentiment has been buoyed by a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating flexibility in future interest rate decisions. His testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services highlighted the possibility of earlier rate cuts if inflation remains subdued, a view echoed by other Fed officials like Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller. This shift has contributed to a rally in the S&P 500, which recently reached a four-month high, reflecting growing investor appetite for risk assets.
Bitcoin bulls interpret these developments as a signal that capital may flow out of short-term government bonds and into higher-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. This potential rotation is further supported by projections of modest revenue growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, suggesting a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to risk-taking. Consequently, even in the absence of expanded monetary stimulus, declining fixed income yields could sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Strategic Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Price Movement Based on Options Open Interest
Analyzing the open interest distribution reveals five key price ranges where the balance between call and put options shifts, providing insight into potential market outcomes:
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$100,000 – $101,500: Nearly balanced open interest with $1.74 billion in calls and $1.75 billion in puts, indicating a neutral stance.
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$101,500 – $102,500: Calls lead by $235 million, signaling a slight bullish edge.
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$102,500 – $104,500: Calls dominate by $750 million, reflecting growing bullish conviction.
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$104,500 – $106,000: Calls surpass puts by $1.41 billion, underscoring strong bullish momentum.
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$106,000 – $108,000: Calls outpace puts by $2.1 billion, marking a decisive advantage for bulls.
For bears to mitigate losses, Bitcoin’s price must fall below $101,500 by the expiry date, representing a 5% decline from the current $107,300. Conversely, maintaining prices above $106,000 would reinforce bullish dominance and potentially trigger a robust rally, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow.
Conclusion
With the $20 billion Bitcoin options expiry imminent, market data indicates a clear advantage for bulls, supported by strong call option open interest and favorable macroeconomic signals. The ability of Bitcoin to sustain levels above $105,000 will be critical in determining whether this momentum translates into a rally toward $110,000. Investors should monitor key support zones and macroeconomic developments closely, as these factors will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
