Bitcoin Could Extend September Gains After Holding $116K Support as NVM Reset and Long Bias Signal $123K–$130K Potential

• BTC gained ~8% in September 2025 while holding $116K support

• On-chain signals (NVM ratio ~2.35) and shrinking exchange reserves point to healthier valuation dynamics.

• Derivatives flow shows long dominance (Long/Short ~1.20), increasing upside conviction toward $123K–$130K.

Meta description: Bitcoin September 2025 resilience — BTC holds $116K support, NVM ratio reset, long dominance rising; read action-ready market signals from COINOTAG.

How has Bitcoin performed in September 2025?

Bitcoin September 2025 has outperformed historical seasonality, gaining about 8% while defending an ascending trendline near $116K. On-chain metrics and derivatives positioning indicate constructive momentum with resistance clustered at $122K–$123.7K and upside potential toward $130K if those levels are overcome.

What on-chain signals support Bitcoin’s resilience?

The NVM ratio eased to approximately 2.35, a 7.5% decline that signals valuations aligning with network activity. Exchange reserves have continued to shrink, indicating supply withdrawal from markets. Together, these dynamics reduce speculative heat and bolster sustainable upside.

Can Bitcoin’s trendline defense unlock another breakout?

Price action has respected an ascending trendline across daily charts, with buyers defending every retest near $116K–$117K. Momentum indicators — RSI ~57 and Parabolic SAR below price — point to balanced momentum with room to extend higher, provided resistance between $122K and $123.7K is cleared.

Source: TradingView

NVM ratio reset aligns price with network growth

The Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) Ratio dropped to ~2.35, a move that historically precedes healthier valuation regimes. This reset suggests price discovery is beginning to track real network usage rather than pure market speculation.

When NVM cools after an expansion phase, markets often see fewer abrupt corrections and more measured advances — a positive for multi-month structure.

Source: CryptoQuant

Are leveraged longs building the fuel for a stronger rally?

Derivatives flows show a tilt toward longs: the Long/Short Ratio registered roughly 54.6% longs vs 45.4% shorts at the time of reporting (Long/Short ~1.20). That positioning increases both the potential for rapid upside if resistance breaks and the risk of sharper intraday moves if stops are triggered.

Sustained long dominance can amplify upside momentum, particularly if liquidity above $123K is limited. Traders should monitor open interest and funding rates for signs of leverage exhaustion or acceleration.

Source: CoinGlass

Conclusively, Bitcoin is rewriting its September narrative through structural trendline support, a valuation reset, and growing speculative conviction. The next decisive technical event will be monthly close behavior around $123K — a clear break could signal an attempt at new highs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What risks could derail Bitcoin’s September advance?

Short-term risks include a leveraged long unwind, negative macro news, or a failure to close monthly above $123K. Exchange inflows reversing could also increase selling pressure. Monitoring funding rates and exchange reserve flows helps identify these risks quickly.

How should traders interpret the NVM ratio drop?

A declining NVM ratio suggests market capitalization is cooling relative to network activity. This typically reduces bubble-like valuations and supports more sustainable price growth rather than speculative spikes.

Key Takeaways

• Trendline Defense: Buyers have defended $116K–$117K, preserving bullish structure.
• Valuation Reset: NVM ~2.35 supports healthier alignment between price and network use.
• Derivatives Conviction: Long dominance could accelerate moves if $123K is cleared; manage leverage risk.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s September 2025 behavior shows tangible resilience: price structure, on-chain valuation dynamics, and derivatives flows align to support a potential push past $123K. Market participants should monitor monthly close, funding rates, and exchange reserves to gauge whether this seasonal reversal leads to sustained all-time-high attempts. Published by COINOTAG — updated 2025-09-20.