Bitcoin Could Face Pressure Near $105K as NVT Ratio, Transactions and Network Growth Slip

• Bitcoin traded near $111,398 after a >3% 24h drop — support at $105K is critical.

• On-chain metrics show Transaction Count 97K and Network Growth 72K, pointing to fading activity.

• Social and sentiment indicators turned negative; NVT down ~11% to 33.8 per CryptoQuant and Santiment data.

Meta description: Bitcoin NVT Ratio drops to 33.8, warning of weaker on-chain demand and pressure on $105K support — read the latest analysis and next steps.

What is the Bitcoin NVT Ratio?

Bitcoin NVT Ratio is the ratio of market capitalization to daily on-chain transaction volume and measures valuation versus transactional activity. A falling NVT can indicate that market cap is shrinking faster than usage or that transaction activity is weakening relative to price.

How does a falling NVT ratio affect Bitcoin price stability?

A declining NVT, now at 33.8 after an 11% drop, suggests reduced organic demand versus valuation. When NVT falls while market cap remains elevated, traders may interpret this as weakening fundamentals and reduced support for high price levels.

CryptoQuant and Santiment data show Transaction Count at 97K and Network Growth at 72K, reinforcing the view that on-chain engagement has contracted recently.

Source: CryptoQuant

Why did on-chain activity fall and what does that mean?

Transaction Count dropped to 97K and Network Growth declined to 72K, indicating fewer active addresses and slower network adoption. These metrics suggest diminished trading and transfer activity after the recent ATH.

Lower activity often reduces liquidity and amplifies volatility. If these metrics do not rebound, price support levels like $105K may be harder to maintain even if some retail groups continue to accumulate.

Source: Santiment

How are market sentiment and social dominance influencing risk?

Weighted Sentiment decreased to –1.06 and Social Dominance slipped to 25.56%, reflecting a turn toward bearish discussion and reduced share of attention for Bitcoin. Negative sentiment can trigger stop-loss cascades and faster sell-offs.

When social dominance falls, capital often rotates to altcoins or exits the market entirely, increasing the probability of short-term corrections for Bitcoin unless sentiment rebounds.

Source: Santiment

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the NVT ratio alone enough to predict a Bitcoin crash?

No. NVT is a valuable indicator of valuation vs activity but should be used with transaction counts, network growth, liquidity, and sentiment metrics for a comprehensive view.

What NVT levels typically indicate elevated risk?

There is no single threshold; historically, abrupt drops or sharp divergence from price gains have signaled risk. Context and trend direction matter more than a fixed number.

How can traders respond to a falling NVT?

Traders can reduce leverage, tighten risk controls, watch on-chain volume changes, and monitor sentiment and exchange flows for confirmation before increasing exposure.

Key Takeaways

• NVT decline: NVT fell to 33.8, signaling weaker transactional strength versus valuation.
• On-chain contraction: Transaction Count 97K and Network Growth 72K point to reduced activity and potential liquidity stress.
• Market risk: Negative sentiment and falling social dominance increase the chance of deeper corrections; $105K is a key pivot.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current on-chain metrics and sentiment suggest a cautious near-term outlook. While smaller holders are still accumulating, the drop in NVT and network activity weakens the case for sustained upside without renewed demand. Monitor on-chain volume, network growth, and sentiment for signs of stabilization or renewed risk to the $105K support.