Bitcoin appears to be in a re-accumulation phase rather than an immediate breakout. If this pattern holds, the cycle could top between roughly $143,700 and $146,300, supported by shrinking exchange supply, rising long-term holding, and continued on-chain demand from buyers.
- Bitcoin’s cycle-top target sits around $143,700–$146,300
- Exchanges show a notable drain in Bitcoin supply, raising squeeze risk
- Leverage increases as shorts crowd in, signaling looming volatility
Bitcoin market outlook: shrinking supply and rising open interest signal potential volatility; stay informed with cycle analysis, data, and expert quotes.
What is Bitcoin’s current outlook according to cycle analysis?
Bitcoin remains in a re-accumulation phase according to long-running cycle models. The setup suggests a possible top around $143,700 to $146,300 if demand persists and supply continues to retreat, aligning with historical performance patterns. This framework supports patience among investors as on-chain signals and price action evolve together.
How does Bitcoin supply on exchanges relate to price dynamics?
On-chain data shows BTC supply on exchanges and OTC desks dropping from 4.5 million to 3.1 million since January 2024, while long-term holders continue to accumulate, a signal that demand is outpacing selling. “The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…” Time will tell which narrative plays out. Source: CryptoQuant
Source: CryptoQuant
In simple terms, traders are heavily betting against the market, expecting prices to fall. But usually, when funding gets this bearish and leverage piles in, it often makes way for a short squeeze.
This would force bearish traders to buy back in.
Leverage ramps up as shorts crowd in
Source: CryptoQuant
That’s a big shift.
Miners aren’t selling, and LTHs won’t budge, even as prices break into new highs. Unlike past cycles, there’s no rush to take profits. Instead, BTC is being pulled into cold storage.
Supply dries up
BTC is vanishing from exchanges and OTC desks at a rapid pace: supply has dropped from 4.5 million to just 3.1 million coins since January 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
That’s a big shift.
Miners aren’t selling, and LTHs won’t budge, even as prices break into new highs. Unlike past cycles, there’s no rush to take profits. Instead, BTC is being pulled into cold storage.
Where’s the top?
According to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, Bitcoin’s current price action still fits within its long-term cycle structure.
If BTC is in a re-accumulation phase, Wedson projects the top of this cycle between $143,700 and $146,300, consistent with historical performance decay across previous cycles.
However, if recent highs around $126K marked a distribution phase, the cycle top may already be in. Still, Wedson notes that,
“The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…”
Time will soon tell which narrative plays out.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s action today supports a cautious stance: on-chain demand remains solid even as price action tests higher levels, and supply continues to tighten. The interplay of shrinking exchange reserves, ongoing hodling by long-term holders, and elevated open interest creates a setup where upside remains plausible, but volatility can spike quickly if sentiment shifts. Investors should monitor on-chain metrics, leverage indicators, and cycle signals to navigate this phase. Published date: October 18, 2025 • Updated: October 18, 2025. By COINOTAG
