Bitcoin Could Rally If US Treasury Fills $850B General Account and Fed Cuts Boost Liquidity

• Treasury General Account reaching $850B can release liquidity to private markets

• Fed rate cuts and market expectations amplify how that liquidity may flow into crypto

• 91.9% of traders priced additional rate easing; historical correlation to Bitcoin is mixed

TGA liquidity: US Treasury General Account hitting $850B could free cash into markets; track Fed cuts and Bitcoin reaction. Read expert analysis and FAQs.

What is TGA liquidity and why does it matter to crypto markets?

TGA liquidity refers to cash held in the Treasury General Account at the Federal Reserve. When the TGA is large and being filled, funds are effectively sequestered; when it falls or stops growing toward a target such as $850 billion, that cash can re-enter private markets and influence asset prices, including crypto, through increased market liquidity.

Liquidity movements from the Treasury can shift cash availability for banks, funds, and brokers, which in turn affects risk asset demand. Market participants monitor this alongside Federal Reserve policy to anticipate price pressure in cryptocurrencies.

How could the Treasury reaching $850 billion affect Bitcoin and crypto markets?

When the Treasury completes a large TGA build, the reduced fiscal draw on private balances eases the liquidity drain. Analysts like Arthur Hayes argue this change could move crypto into an “up only” phase as liquidity returns. Opposing views, including research commentary from institutional analysts, indicate the correlation between net liquidity and Bitcoin is inconsistent — the relationship exists but is not deterministic.

Short-term price action may diverge: for example, a Fed rate cut can trigger a sell-the-news reaction even as longer-term liquidity supports higher valuations. Traders should weigh timing, Fed signals, and liquidity flows together.

Source: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, wrote that once the TGA build completes at the target, “up only can resume.” At the time this article was drafted the TGA had crossed $807 billion on its way toward the $850 billion threshold that market commentators cite as meaningful for liquidity normalization.

Not all market professionals agree. André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, described net liquidity as having a loose correlation to Bitcoin, calling the linkage of primary predictive value “weak.” These differing views underscore that TGA signals should be one input among many.

How does the Federal Reserve’s rate cut interact with TGA liquidity?

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in 2025 — the first cut since 2024. Rate cuts expand liquidity conditions by lowering borrowing costs and can lift risk assets. However, immediate reactions can be counterintuitive: Bitcoin dipped below $115,000 after the cut in a classic sell-the-news move.

Market pricing shows strong expectations for further easing: 91.9% of traders were pricing up to a 50 BPS cut at the next FOMC meeting in October, based on futures-derived indicators from the CME Group (data referenced as plain text).

91.9% of traders now expect an interest rate cut of up to 50 BPS at the next FOMC meeting in October. Source: CME Group

What should investors watch to assess whether liquidity will flow into crypto?

• TGA balance trajectory: watch daily and weekly changes toward the $850B mark.
• Fed communications: FOMC minutes and speeches signal the pace of future cuts.
• Market positioning: futures, options skew, and OTC desk flows show risk appetite.
• Macro liquidity indicators: bank reserve levels and repo market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How soon could liquidity flow back into private markets after the TGA hits $850B?

Liquidity can begin to normalize quickly once large Treasury cash draws stop, but timing varies. Markets may react within days or weeks depending on concurrent Fed actions and investor sentiment.

Will Bitcoin automatically rally when liquidity returns?

Not automatically. Historical data shows mixed correlations; liquidity can create favorable conditions, but price moves depend on demand, positioning, and macro drivers.

Key Takeaways

• TGA liquidity matters: A full Treasury General Account can sequester cash; completion may release liquidity to markets.
• Fed policy amplifies impact: Rate cuts and forward guidance shape how liquidity affects crypto.
• Multi-factor analysis required: Combine TGA trends with market positioning, on-chain signals, and macro data before acting.

Conclusion

The Treasury General Account approaching $850 billion is a significant liquidity signal that could remove a key drag on private-market cash availability. TGA liquidity, Federal Reserve rate guidance, and trader positioning should be assessed together to understand potential impacts on Bitcoin and broader crypto markets. Monitor TGA balances and Fed communications for actionable insight.

Published: 2025-09-20 | Updated: 2025-09-20 | Author: COINOTAG

Related: Bitcoiners chasing a quick Lambo are heading for a wipeout: Arthur Hayes