Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Correction Amid Overheated Supply Signals and Liquidations Despite Momentum Above $100,000

• Long-term bullish trend intact above $100K, but short-term signals point to correction risk.

• Supply in Profit declining from near 100% to ~91% indicates reduced immediate upside breadth.

• Net liquidations around −$40M show ongoing long wipeouts; data suggests medium downside pressure without cascade risk.

Bitcoin above $100K: Long-term bull momentum remains, but short-term overheating and liquidations warn of pullbacks; learn safer entry points and data-driven signals. Read now.

Bitcoin shows strong long-term momentum above $100K, but overheated signals and liquidations warn of short-term corrections and safer entry points.

• Bitcoin’s bull market holds steady, but overheated signals from Supply in Profit and liquidations warn of short-term corrections ahead.
• Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s resilience above $100K, yet caution that entry points may be safer after pullbacks near +0.4 SD levels.
• Despite ongoing wipeouts and volatility, liquidation data shows no cascade risk, keeping long-term bullish momentum firmly in place.

Bitcoin’s short-term conditions show signs of overheating despite the long-term bull run remaining intact. Analysts warn that a pullback could emerge soon, offering potential buying opportunities at lower levels. The warnings come amid elevated supply metrics and persistent liquidation pressures shaping near-term trading dynamics.

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent explained that Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has declined from nearly 100% to about 91% after recent highs. The metric now rests near the +1 standard deviation band, a level historically tied to euphoric or overheated conditions.

“Current setup suggests that the long-term bull market remains intact, but short-term conditions are overheated,” he said. He added that corrections around the +0.4 SD band often create attractive buy zones.

What is the outlook for Bitcoin above $100K?

Bitcoin above $100K remains in a long-term bullish regime as distribution-weighted metrics stay elevated, but short-term indicators such as Supply in Profit near +1 SD and negative net liquidations point to a probable pullback. Expect volatility; monitor +0.4 SD as a potential healthier entry zone.

How does Supply in Profit signal overheating?

Supply in Profit measures the share of circulating coins currently above their acquisition price. A decline from ~100% to ~91% signals profit-taking and reduced participant breadth. Historically, readings near +1 SD align with local tops, while rebounds toward +0.4 SD often mark corrective troughs and better risk/reward buying opportunities.

Signals of Short-Term Pressure

The data shows Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit still trading far above its 1500-day moving average, confirming long-term bullish momentum. However, repeated moves near the +1 SD band often precede local tops and short-term corrections.

Additionally, Yonsei_dent noted that bottoms tend to form closer to the +0.4 SD band, which could serve as a healthier entry point for disciplined traders. Watching the pace and magnitude of drops toward that band helps refine timing.

What do liquidation trends indicate?

Liquidation figures add another layer of caution. Analyst Axel Adler Jr highlighted that net liquidations remain negative near −$40 million, signaling persistent long wipeouts. The magnitude shows pressure but not the systemic cascade typically associated with market collapses.

Market Structure and Liquidation Trends

Data from the Bitcoin Long Short Liquidations Dashboard reinforces this mixed picture. The market has seen extreme volatility since late 2023, with liquidation spikes aligning with sharp rallies and corrections.

Source: Axel Adler Jr

For example, the rise above $70,000 led to significant liquidations, which were followed by corrections that caused momentum to be reset. The 30-day moving average for net liquidations highlights ongoing turbulence by displaying alternating bull and bear phases.

Recent activity demonstrates how resilient Bitcoin is above $100,000 despite these persistent challenges. The market is under pressure, but not enough to cause a significant collapse driven by liquidation—the trend remains biased higher on longer timeframes.

How to identify safer Bitcoin entry points?

Use a rules-based approach combining Supply in Profit bands, liquidation flow, and moving-average confirmation. Look for corrective moves toward +0.4 SD, declining net liquidation spikes, and price holding above key moving averages before increasing exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will liquidations push Bitcoin below long-term support?

Current liquidation levels show medium downside pressure but do not indicate cascading forced selling. Long-term support remains intact as long as major moving averages hold and net liquidations subside.

When should traders consider buying more Bitcoin?

Traders may consider adding on confirmed pullbacks toward the +0.4 SD band, with declining net liquidation spikes and price stability above core moving averages—this improves risk/reward for new positions.

Key Takeaways

• Long-term trend: Bitcoin above $100K remains bullish; major moving averages support the uptrend.
• Short-term risk: Supply in Profit near +1 SD and negative net liquidations point to likely pullbacks.
• Actionable insight: Watch the +0.4 SD band, monitor liquidation trends, and apply disciplined risk management for entries.

Conclusion

Bitcoin above $100K continues to show durable bull-market characteristics, but short-term overheating and liquidation stress signal a prudent approach. Use Supply in Profit bands and liquidation metrics to time entries, favoring pullbacks toward +0.4 SD as lower-risk opportunities. Follow data-driven risk management and watch for renewed confirmation before scaling positions.