Bitcoin price is consolidating near $111,000 after rejection at $113,000, driven by ETF outflows and stagnant futures open interest; models tied to U.S. M2 money supply point to a possible move toward $167,000–$185,000 by year-end. Monitor ETFs, OI and money-supply trends.
-
Immediate market signal: BTC rejected at $113,000, now near $110,900
-
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $400 million in outflows across Sept. 4–5, 2025, reducing AUM to $144.5B.
-
Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has held in a $79–$85B corridor for seven weeks, indicating market indecision.
Bitcoin price update: Bitcoin price consolidates after $113k rejection; track ETFs, OI, and M2-driven models for trade cues — read latest insights now.
What is driving the current Bitcoin price pause?
Bitcoin price is pausing after a failed breakout to $113,000 on Sept. 5, 2025, as ETF outflows and flat futures open interest limit momentum. Short-term indicators like RSI and the Fear & Greed Index are neutral, suggesting a consolidation phase before a directional move.
How did the $113,000 rejection unfold?
On Sept. 5, 2025, BTC rose about 2% intraday but was capped at $113,000 and pulled back to roughly $110,300 as selling pressure increased. At press time BTC is trading near $110,900 on major spot platforms, showing a modest 0.24% 24-hour change.
Image by CoinMarketCap
Market breadth is muted. Aggregate crypto capitalization sits near $3.81 trillion, up 0.19% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 48/100 (Neutral), while CoinMarketCap reports BTC RSI at 48.46 — both metrics reflect a market at a crossroads.
Why are spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing outflows?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged about $400 million in withdrawals across Sept. 4–5, 2025. Investors pulled $227M on Sept. 4 and $160M on Sept. 5, pushing combined spot BTC ETF AUM to around $144.5 billion.
Major ETFs affected included BlackRock IBIT, Grayscale GBTC and Bitwise BITB, which together accounted for roughly $150 million of the one-day decline. COINOTAG previously noted waning ETF traction since early July 2025, suggesting liquidity may be moving to other TradFi products, metals or equities.
Ethereum spot ETFs were hit harder last week, losing over $787 million in AUM in seven days — the largest weekly outflow since their July 2024 launch.
How has Bitcoin open interest behaved recently?
Bitcoin open interest has been range-bound between $79 billion and $85 billion for seven weeks, indicating limited leverage expansion. After a peak of about $88 billion on July 16, 2025, aggregated futures OI gradually declined and has plateaued below $80 billion.
Binance accounts for roughly $14 billion of current BTC futures OI. Ethereum futures OI similarly stabilized near $60 billion. These flat OI readings imply traders are waiting for a clearer macro or on-chain catalyst before scaling net exposure.
What models suggest upside to $185,000 for BTC?
Tephra Digital’s BTC/M2 model links Bitcoin’s price to U.S. M2 money supply movements with a 100–200 day lag. According to the model’s assumptions, a prior M2 expansion and correlated gold moves could project a BTC range of $167,000–$185,000 by year-end if historical relationships hold.
Tephra Digital analysts observe that BTC historically tracks M2 and gold with multi-month lag, which supports a potentially bullish Q4, 2025 scenario. Bitcoin’s ATH of $124,457 was set on Aug. 14, 2025; BTC currently trades about 11% below that level.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long has Bitcoin open interest been range-bound?
Bitcoin futures open interest has been stuck in a roughly $79–$85 billion corridor for seven weeks, reflecting stable leverage and limited fresh positioning since mid-July 2025.
What does neutral Fear & Greed mean for traders?
A Fear & Greed Index of 48 indicates balanced sentiment—neither overly risk-seeking nor fearful—so traders should expect lower volatility until a clear catalyst appears.
Key Takeaways
- Price action: BTC rejected at $113,000 and is consolidating near $110,900; short-term momentum is muted.
- ETF flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$400M outflows on Sept. 4–5, lowering AUM to ~$144.5B and pressuring demand.
- Macro model insight: Tephra Digital’s BTC/M2 framework suggests a possible $167k–$185k target by year-end if historical lags persist.
Conclusion
Bitcoin price is in a consolidation phase driven by ETF outflows and flat futures OI, while macro-linked models point to meaningful upside if liquidity conditions favor risk assets. Traders should watch ETF flows, open interest, and M2-related indicators for the next clear directional cue. COINOTAG will provide ongoing updates as data evolves.
