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Bitcoin price is consolidating near $111,000 after rejection at $113,000, driven by ETF outflows and stagnant futures open interest; models tied to U.S. M2 money supply point to a possible move toward $167,000–$185,000 by year-end. Monitor ETFs, OI and money-supply trends.
Immediate market signal: BTC rejected at $113,000, now near $110,900
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $400 million in outflows across Sept. 4–5, 2025, reducing AUM to $144.5B.
Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has held in a $79–$85B corridor for seven weeks, indicating market indecision.
Bitcoin price update: Bitcoin price consolidates after $113k rejection; track ETFs, OI, and M2-driven models for trade cues — read latest insights now.
What is driving the current Bitcoin price pause?
Bitcoin price is pausing after a failed breakout to $113,000 on Sept. 5, 2025, as ETF outflows and flat futures open interest limit momentum. Short-term indicators like RSI and the Fear & Greed Index are neutral, suggesting a consolidation phase before a directional move.
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How did the $113,000 rejection unfold?
On Sept. 5, 2025, BTC rose about 2% intraday but was capped at $113,000 and pulled back to roughly $110,300 as selling pressure increased. At press time BTC is trading near $110,900 on major spot platforms, showing a modest 0.24% 24-hour change.
Image by CoinMarketCap
Market breadth is muted. Aggregate crypto capitalization sits near $3.81 trillion, up 0.19% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 48/100 (Neutral), while CoinMarketCap reports BTC RSI at 48.46 — both metrics reflect a market at a crossroads.
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Why are spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing outflows?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged about $400 million in withdrawals across Sept. 4–5, 2025. Investors pulled $227M on Sept. 4 and $160M on Sept. 5, pushing combined spot BTC ETF AUM to around $144.5 billion.
Major ETFs affected included BlackRock IBIT, Grayscale GBTC and Bitwise BITB, which together accounted for roughly $150 million of the one-day decline. COINOTAG previously noted waning ETF traction since early July 2025, suggesting liquidity may be moving to other TradFi products, metals or equities.
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Ethereum spot ETFs were hit harder last week, losing over $787 million in AUM in seven days — the largest weekly outflow since their July 2024 launch.
How has Bitcoin open interest behaved recently?
Bitcoin open interest has been range-bound between $79 billion and $85 billion for seven weeks, indicating limited leverage expansion. After a peak of about $88 billion on July 16, 2025, aggregated futures OI gradually declined and has plateaued below $80 billion.
Binance accounts for roughly $14 billion of current BTC futures OI. Ethereum futures OI similarly stabilized near $60 billion. These flat OI readings imply traders are waiting for a clearer macro or on-chain catalyst before scaling net exposure.
What models suggest upside to $185,000 for BTC?
Tephra Digital’s BTC/M2 model links Bitcoin’s price to U.S. M2 money supply movements with a 100–200 day lag. According to the model’s assumptions, a prior M2 expansion and correlated gold moves could project a BTC range of $167,000–$185,000 by year-end if historical relationships hold.
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Tephra Digital analysts observe that BTC historically tracks M2 and gold with multi-month lag, which supports a potentially bullish Q4, 2025 scenario. Bitcoin’s ATH of $124,457 was set on Aug. 14, 2025; BTC currently trades about 11% below that level.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How long has Bitcoin open interest been range-bound?
Bitcoin futures open interest has been stuck in a roughly $79–$85 billion corridor for seven weeks, reflecting stable leverage and limited fresh positioning since mid-July 2025.
What does neutral Fear & Greed mean for traders?
A Fear & Greed Index of 48 indicates balanced sentiment—neither overly risk-seeking nor fearful—so traders should expect lower volatility until a clear catalyst appears.
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Key Takeaways
Price action: BTC rejected at $113,000 and is consolidating near $110,900; short-term momentum is muted.
ETF flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$400M outflows on Sept. 4–5, lowering AUM to ~$144.5B and pressuring demand.
Macro model insight: Tephra Digital’s BTC/M2 framework suggests a possible $167k–$185k target by year-end if historical lags persist.
Conclusion
Bitcoin price is in a consolidation phase driven by ETF outflows and flat futures OI, while macro-linked models point to meaningful upside if liquidity conditions favor risk assets. Traders should watch ETF flows, open interest, and M2-related indicators for the next clear directional cue. COINOTAG will provide ongoing updates as data evolves.
