Bitcoin Could Test 100 EMA Near $111K After Powell’s Dovish Turn, But Lack of New Inflows Could Prompt Deeper Pullback

• No fresh inflows are keeping rallies muted

• Bitcoin is testing the 100 EMA; failure to hold risks a drop to the 200 EMA

• Declining volumes and slowing network growth suggest limited upside without new capital

Bitcoin price outlook: Short-term test of 100 EMA; needs fresh inflows to sustain a rally—read technical, on-chain levels and trade-ready support/resistance guidance.

What is the Bitcoin price outlook this week?

Bitcoin price outlook is cautious this week as technical conditions and macro signals collide. Jerome Powell’s dovish tone has improved liquidity expectations, but Bitcoin’s price action shows hesitation; without fresh inflows or institutional demand, a sustainable rally is unlikely.

This analysis draws on on-chain metrics, EMA tests, and volume trends to set trade-ready support and resistance levels for the coming sessions.

How are on-chain metrics and liquidity affecting Bitcoin’s momentum?

On-chain data shows steady liquidity but no significant new inflows. Network growth is decelerating and exchange balances are not signaling heavy buy-side accumulation. Declining trading volumes accompany price rejection at prior highs, which reduces upward conviction and increases the likelihood of a corrective move.

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingView

Why is Bitcoin testing the 100 EMA and what levels matter?

Bitcoin is testing the 100 EMA around $111,000-$112,000 after dropping below the 50 EMA, signaling a weak recovery attempt. A daily close above the 100 EMA would restore short-term momentum, while failure to hold that level increases the risk of a retracement toward the 200 EMA near $104,000.

Key technical points: reduced volume on rallies, rejection at $116,500 as a failed breakout, and a potential move to the 200 EMA if support breaks.

What would confirm a renewed bullish leg for Bitcoin?

A confirmed bullish leg requires: 1) sustained inflows from retail or institutions, 2) rising on-chain activity and network growth, and 3) increasing trading volume on up-days. Macro tailwinds from rate cuts can help, but they cannot substitute for fresh capital entering the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will dovish Fed policy automatically lift Bitcoin?

Dovish Fed policy can increase liquidity and support risk assets, but Bitcoin needs fresh inflows and higher trading volume to convert macro tailwinds into a sustained rally. Liquidity alone rarely drives new structural moves without participation.

Where should traders place short-term risk management?

Traders should use the 100 EMA (~$111k-$112k) as a short-term support marker and set protective measures below the 200 EMA (~$104k) if confirmation of breakdown occurs. Manage position size due to reduced volume and volatility risk.

Key Takeaways

• No fresh inflows: Liquidity is steady but lacks new buyers, limiting rally potential.
• Critical technical levels: 100 EMA (~$111k-$112k) support, 116,500 resistance, 200 EMA (~$104k) downside target.
• Actionable insight: Watch volume and on-chain inflows; a confirmed close above the 100 EMA with volume is needed for bullish conviction.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook is neutral-to-cautious: macro liquidity improvements help sentiment, but the primary driver remains fresh inflows and participation. Traders should monitor the 100 EMA and on-chain metrics for confirmation. For now, risk management and clear entry/exit rules remain essential as the market decides whether to resume the uptrend or enter deeper corrective territory.

Published: 2025-08-25 · Updated: 2025-08-25 · Author: COINOTAG