Bitcoin Could Test $118,000 as Falling High‑Yield Bond Yields, MVRV and Open Interest Signal Lower Sell Pressure

• Falling high‑yield bond yields point to improved risk appetite for Bitcoin.

• Market indicators (MVRV 2.2, NUPL 0.523) indicate modest realized profits and lower near‑term sell pressure.

• Derivatives data (Open Interest $83.62B, funding 0.0091%) and heatmap clusters suggest a short squeeze path to $118,000.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bullish signals from bond yields and on‑chain metrics; watch $114K–$118K clusters for breakout — read expert analysis and next steps.

What is the Bitcoin price outlook right now?

Bitcoin price outlook currently reflects easing credit stress and steady investor appetite: falling high‑yield bond yields and on‑chain metrics show reduced selling pressure, while derivatives heatmaps point to clustered liquidation levels that could trigger a short squeeze toward $118,000 if momentum persists.

How do bond yields affect Bitcoin?

High‑yield bond yields (ICE BofA US High Yield Index) act as a proxy for credit risk and risk‑on appetite. Historically, falling yields indicate easing credit stress and reallocation into higher‑risk assets like Bitcoin. Recent yield declines corresponded with BTC reclaiming $116,000 on 15 September, supporting upside momentum. Source: Alphractal (plain text).

Why does MVRV matter for BTC price action?

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) measures capital currently unrealized versus realized basis and helps gauge overvaluation or undervaluation. CryptoQuant reported an MVRV reading near 2.2, implying more capital is locked in and that holders show restraint, which typically reduces immediate selling pressure and supports price stability.

How does investor profit (NUPL) influence selling behavior?

NUPL at ~0.523 shows investors are in modest profit territory rather than in euphoric gains. Modest unrealized profits usually translate to stronger holding behavior and less forced selling, reducing downward pressure and improving the probability of sustained upside in the near term. Source: CryptoQuant (plain text).

What does the liquidation heatmap and derivatives data show?

CoinGlass heatmaps show concentrated liquidation clusters between $114,000 and $118,000. Combined with Open Interest near $83.62 billion and positive funding (0.0091%), the derivatives market displays bullish lean: short positions crowded in those bands could fuel a short squeeze toward $118K if price breaches immediate resistance. Source: CoinGlass (plain text).

How should traders interpret these signals?

Use a multi‑indicator approach: align macro indicators (high‑yield bond yields), on‑chain metrics (MVRV, NUPL), and derivatives structure (OI, funding, heatmap clusters) before committing. This layered view reduces single‑indicator bias and helps identify plausible short‑term targets and risk levels.

Market analysis and supporting charts

Falling high‑yield yields have historically rotated capital into risk assets, and current fractal patterns suggest similar dynamics may be in play. The chart pattern identified by Alphractal has repeated across cycles and supports a potential push toward prior highs above $124,000 if momentum continues. Source: Alphractal (plain text).

Source: Alphractal

What on‑chain metrics confirm lower selling pressure?

CryptoQuant’s MVRV at ~2.2 and a NUPL of 0.523 indicate modest unrealized gains and more capital remaining allocated to Bitcoin. These readings align with stronger holder conviction and lower likelihood of immediate capitulation, supporting price resilience during pullbacks.

Source: CryptoQuant

What are the immediate levels to watch?

Short term: support at $114,000 and resistance between $116,000–$118,000. A sustained break above $118,000 could trigger short covering and push toward $124,000+; failure to hold $114,000 would increase downside risk and invalidate the short‑squeeze thesis.

Source: CoinGlass

Frequently Asked Questions

What short‑term price target should traders watch for Bitcoin?

Watch $118,000 as the near‑term breakout target; clustered liquidations between $114K–$118K could fuel a short squeeze if price breaks resistance, with a possible extension toward the prior cycle high above $124,000 if momentum continues. Monitor OI and funding closely.

How reliable are MVRV and NUPL as sell‑signal indicators?

MVRV and NUPL are reliable sentiment gauges when combined with market structure: MVRV highlights relative valuation vs. realized cost, and NUPL shows profit distribution. Use them with derivatives and macro indicators for confirmation rather than in isolation.

Key Takeaways

• Macro alignment: Falling high‑yield bond yields favor risk assets, supporting Bitcoin inflows.
• On‑chain support: MVRV ~2.2 and NUPL 0.523 indicate modest profits and lower selling pressure.
• Derivatives risk/reward: OI $83.62B, funding 0.0091% and heatmap clusters make $118K a critical level for a potential short squeeze.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current price outlook is biased to the upside while key levels hold: macro signals, on‑chain metrics, and derivatives positioning collectively support a short‑term bullish case toward $118,000. Traders should watch $114K–$118K clusters and align risk management with confirmed breaks. Published by COINOTAG on 2025‑09‑15; updated 2025‑09‑15.

Published: 2025-09-15 | Updated: 2025-09-15 | Author: COINOTAG