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Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal forecasts an extended crypto cycle potentially lasting until Q2 2026, driven by macroeconomic trends and weakening US dollar dynamics.
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Pal draws parallels between the current market and 2017’s Bitcoin rally, emphasizing the influence of the business cycle score and dollar index movements on crypto valuations.
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According to COINOTAG, Pal highlights the Middle East’s strategic focus on AI and blockchain as a significant factor in attracting institutional investment and fostering long-term crypto adoption.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal predicts a prolonged crypto cycle through 2026, citing macroeconomic data, dollar weakness, and Middle Eastern blockchain initiatives as key drivers.
Macroeconomic Indicators Signal a Prolonged Crypto Cycle
Raoul Pal’s analysis underscores the importance of macroeconomic factors in shaping the current cryptocurrency landscape. The business cycle score, a proprietary metric Pal uses to gauge economic phases, remains below 50, indicating that the global economy is still in an early recovery stage. This suggests that the crypto market, often sensitive to broader economic shifts, may continue its upward trajectory for an extended period.
Historically, Bitcoin’s 2017 performance serves as a benchmark, where it surged from approximately $1,044 to over $14,000 within the year. Pal notes that the current market is exhibiting a similar pattern, but with a potentially longer runway due to delayed adjustments in interest rates and a sideways US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined nearly 9% since the start of the year, weakening the dollar’s purchasing power and enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as both a speculative asset and an alternative currency.
Impact of Dollar Weakness on Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is a critical dynamic in understanding recent market movements. As the dollar depreciates, investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflationary pressures. Pal emphasizes that this relationship is a primary catalyst for the ongoing crypto cycle, suggesting that the market’s momentum could persist well into 2026.
Furthermore, Pal’s observation that current conditions resemble the early 2020 market environment rather than the 2021 peak implies that many investors may underestimate the growth potential still ahead. This perspective encourages a reassessment of market timing and investment strategies within the crypto space.
Middle East’s Strategic Embrace of AI and Blockchain Technologies
Institutional interest in cryptocurrency is gaining significant traction in the Middle East, where sovereign wealth funds and government entities are actively integrating blockchain into their economic frameworks. Pal’s recent engagements in the region reveal a unified mandate focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain as pillars for future development.
This strategic alignment extends beyond Bitcoin as a reserve asset, encompassing broader infrastructure projects that leverage blockchain for governance, transparency, and innovation. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar are positioning themselves as leaders in this technological transformation, which could accelerate crypto adoption and market expansion.
Institutional Adoption as a Growth Catalyst
The involvement of large-scale investors from the Middle East underscores a critical shift in the crypto ecosystem—from retail-driven speculation to institutional validation. Pal highlights that attracting these “bigger players” is essential for sustaining market growth and enhancing legitimacy. This trend aligns with broader regulatory developments and the maturation of stablecoins and Bitcoin reserves, which are expected to serve as major catalysts in 2025.
Conclusion
Raoul Pal’s insights offer a compelling outlook for the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the interplay between macroeconomic indicators and institutional adoption. The weakening US dollar and ongoing economic recovery suggest that the current crypto cycle may extend through Q2 2026, providing investors with a prolonged window of opportunity. Additionally, the Middle East’s commitment to blockchain and AI technologies signals a growing institutional foundation that could underpin future market resilience and innovation. Staying informed on these developments is crucial for stakeholders aiming to navigate the evolving crypto landscape effectively.
