Bitcoin Cycle May Be Slowing as Altcoin Flows, ETF Prospects and Rate Cuts Could Support Fall 2025 Uptrend

• Bitcoin cycle slowing: realized-cap shows more coins held 1+ year, flattening the Phase 3 uptrend.

• Altcoin inflows repeatedly divert liquidity, moderating Bitcoin’s short-term gains.

• September rate-cut expectations and possible October altcoin spot ETF approvals could boost a fall 2025 market recovery.

Bitcoin cycle slowing: Realized-cap holding increases suggest a longer cycle; prepare for fall 2025 recovery — read analysis and strategy.

What is causing the Bitcoin cycle to slow?

Bitcoin cycle slowing is driven by a rising share of coins held for over a year, according to realized market-cap data, which flattens the Phase 3 slope. Institutional adoption and spot ETF introduction are lengthening cycles, creating steadier, slower appreciation rather than sharp short-term spikes.

How are altcoin flows affecting Bitcoin momentum?

Capital rotation into altcoins has repeatedly reduced Bitcoin’s short-term upward momentum. Monthly exchange and on-chain flow indicators show that when altcoin inflows spike, Bitcoin’s weekly returns tend to compress within the same period. This redistribution creates a more balanced market structure compared with 2023–2024 dominance phases.

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s cycle is slowing, with altcoin flows, ETFs, and rate cuts setting the stage for a fall 2025 uptrend.

• Bitcoin’s Phase 3 cycle shows a flattening slope, with realized cap data revealing longer-term holding patterns compared to past cycles.
• Capital rotation into altcoins has repeatedly slowed Bitcoin’s upward momentum, marking a recurring trend that defines the current extended cycle.
• Expectations of September rate cuts and possible October spot ETF approvals for altcoins provide optimism for renewed market growth in fall 2025.

The crypto market cycle shows slower momentum as Bitcoin’s long-term holding pattern extends. Analysts suggest the next strong uptrend could emerge in fall 2025.

Why does realized market cap indicate longer holding periods?

Realized market cap metrics show increasing proportions of supply last moved over one year ago, signaling that more Bitcoin is being retained long term. CryptoQuant analysis and on-chain signals point to reduced speculative turnover, which flattens growth curves and extends cycle duration.

CryptoQuant analyst @DanCoinInvestor explained that in Phase 3, the slope of the uptrend is flattening. This indicates a slower but more extended market cycle. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption are among the primary reasons for this development.

Crypto Market Cycle Slows, Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025

“Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market cap), past cycles (Phase 1 and 2) show that the market surged sharply and reached its peak.

However, in the current phase (3), the slope… pic.twitter.com/jTL139wa8c” — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 29, 2025

When could monetary policy and ETF approvals shift the market?

Expectations for a September rate cut could increase liquidity, improving risk appetite across digital assets. Combined with potential October approvals for spot altcoin ETFs, these factors could catalyze broader institutional flows and a renewed uptrend in fall 2025.

What should investors consider now?

Market consolidation and periodic corrections can present accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. Monitor realized-cap holding trends, altcoin flow indicators, and announcements on ETFs and monetary policy to time entries and manage risk in an extended cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions

How long could the extended Bitcoin cycle last?

Extended cycles depend on adoption and liquidity trends; with increased long-term holding and institutional flows, Phase 3 could last several quarters, potentially through late 2025 before a sustained uptrend.

What indicators best predict the next uptrend?

Realized market-cap holding, exchange flow metrics, altcoin inflows, and policy/ETF announcements are key indicators that together provide early signals for a market shift.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin cycle slowing: Realized-cap shows more long-term holders, flattening the uptrend.
• Altcoin flows: Redistribution of capital into altcoins moderates Bitcoin’s short-term gains.
• Macro & ETF catalysts: Anticipated rate cuts and spot ETF possibilities could spur a fall 2025 recovery.

Conclusion

Realized market-cap data and on-chain indicators point to a Bitcoin cycle slowing pattern, driven by longer-term holding and capital rotation into altcoins. With rate-cut expectations and potential ETF approvals on the horizon, investors should prepare for a possible fall 2025 uptrend by monitoring key on-chain and macro signals. COINOTAG will continue to track developments and update coverage.