Bitcoin Decline Drags BlackRock IBIT Negative

Bitcoin's Sharp Weekend Drop and the BlackRock IBIT Effect

Bitcoin's sharp weekend drop dragged the total investor position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF into negative territory. According to Unlimited Funds CIO Bob Elliott, after Friday's close, the average dollar invested in IBIT entered the loss zone; BTC price fell back to mid-70,000 dollar levels. In the chart shared by Elliott, dollar-weighted returns shifted slightly negative at the end of January; cumulative gains since the fund launch were wiped out. While early investors are still in profit, large inflows at high prices pulled the average down. It had reached the 35 billion dollar level at the October peak.

IBIT stands out as BlackRock's fastest ETF to reach 70 billion dollars in assets under management. According to CoinShares data, in the week of January 25, there were outflows of 1.1 billion dollars from BTC funds and 1.73 billion dollars from total crypto products; recorded as the largest weekly withdrawal. US-focused outflows stemmed from diminishing rate cut expectations, negative price momentum, and failure to fulfill the inflation hedge role.

Breaking News: Bitcoin Falls Below Historic Levels

Bitcoin fell below MicroStrategy's cost basis of 76.037 dollars for the first time since October 2023. Additionally, it dropped below 80,000 dollars for the first time since April 2025. While the dollar index (DXY) rose %0,4, BTC lost %4 value; gold fell %2,5, Nasdaq %0,8. Expectations of Walsh becoming the new FED chair pressured risk appetite.

Technical Analysis: BTC in Oversold Territory

• Price: 78.146,75 USD (24h Change: -%0,85)
• RSI: 23,82 (Oversold)
• Trend: Down (Supertrend: Bearish)
• EMA 20: 87.266,83 USD
• Supports: S1: 75.719,90 USD (Strong, %2,39 away); S2: 73.751,30 USD (Intermediate)
• Resistances: R1: 80.530,22 USD (Strong, %3,82 away); R2: 84.347,73 USD

Although the oversold signal on the RSI indicates recovery potential, the bearish trend dominates.

Market Impacts and Expectations

Outflows are shaking confidence in BTC ETFs, while erosion of the cost basis for institutional players like MicroStrategy could increase selling pressure. With fading hopes for rate cuts, a risk-off environment prevails; declines in gold and stocks affected BTC.

Conclusion: Careful Monitoring Required

IBIT's negative return reminds of the volatility of spot BTC ETFs. If support levels hold, a rebound is possible, but DXY strength could trigger further downside. Investors should monitor technical levels.