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Recent trading patterns indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a phase of low volatility, leading to decreased inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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As institutional interest wanes, the cryptocurrency market reflects caution, prompting experts to analyze the potential for a price shift in the coming weeks.
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According to Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant, “The demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has halved this quarter compared to the same time last year,” indicating significant shifts in market sentiment.
The latest insights reveal Bitcoin’s low volatility and declining ETF inflows as the crypto market braces for potential price movements ahead.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Show Notable Decline
As Bitcoin continues to navigate its trading range, the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has sharply decreased. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlighted that net inflows have halved in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. Specifically, the net inflow is currently around 41,000 BTC, a significant drop from 100,000 BTC observed in the previous year.
The stark contrast in demand is not entirely alarming when viewed in dollar terms; ETF inflows have seen a minor decrease from approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 to $4.3 billion in 2025. This nuanced perspective indicates that while investor enthusiasm seems to subside, the fundamental financial backing for Bitcoin remains steady.
Institutional Sentiment Reflects Cautious Optimism
In addition to declining ETF interest, market analysts have observed a decrease in the one-month basis of CME Bitcoin futures, which has fallen to levels last seen before the market’s previous bullish phase. Vetle Lunde from K33 research pointed out that the one-month basis, which measures the price difference between front-month futures and Bitcoin’s spot price, indicates a bearish sentiment despite a currently positive reading.
Lunde’s assessment emphasizes a “risk-averse” atmosphere prevailing in the markets, with factors such as low trading volumes and lack of significant ETF flows contributing to this sentiment. He noted, “Trading volumes are at pre-election levels, there are no material ETF flows, and volatility is gone,” showcasing the cautious approach many traders are taking.
Price Movement and Market Compression Under $98K
Bitcoin’s price action over recent weeks has illustrated an extended period of low volatility, creating a compressed trading range that has rendered the market directionless. Despite this stagnation, BTC has not closed below $92,000 since mid-November, indicating a certain level of support.
Jackis, a prominent crypto trader, likened the current price compression to that of August 2023, showcasing similar market conditions. The established trading range fluctuates between $106,000 and $91,500, prompting traders to maintain a watchful eye on potential breakout scenarios. Jelle, another investor, remarked on Bitcoin’s struggle to surpass the $97,000 mark, suggesting that the market is under increasing pressure and awaits a decisive move.
Potential Price Catalysts on the Horizon
From a technical analysis standpoint, a daily close above $98,000 could signify a turning point for Bitcoin, potentially igniting renewed bullish momentum. The inability to close above this critical threshold since February 4 suggests a level of resistance that needs to be overcome for the bulls to regain control. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin can break free from this range, it may foster a surge of volatility not seen in recent weeks.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin’s current environment of low volatility and reduced ETF inflows paints a cautious landscape for investors. While recent patterns indicate a tightening price range, analysts remain vigilant for a potential breakout that could alter the market dynamics. With key resistance levels still in play, the upcoming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin, as any significant price movements could reignite institutional interest and market activity.
