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- Recent statistics from Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs may signal an entry into a bear season.
- Bitcoin has entered its fifth consecutive negative weekly close as of Monday.
- Historically, Bitcoin has never closed five weeks in a row in decline outside of a bear market environment.
Bitcoin’s bearish trend is becoming increasingly evident, with recent statistics from spot ETFs pointing towards a potential bear season. This article delves into the details and implications of this development.
A Slow but Steady Retreat
Popular crypto analyst MisterCh0c noticed this pattern on Monday, sparking reactions from more bullish followers. Some crypto investors pointed out that the decline throughout April was mild compared to previous bull markets. Bitcoin, the leader of cryptocurrencies, closed at about $63,000, a roughly 12% decline from the week’s high of about $71,400 on March 31.
Supporting Analysis
James Check, the lead analyst at Glassnode, supported this analysis on Friday, noting that Bitcoin has only fallen 20% from its peak of $73,000 in this cycle. When compared to the 2017 bull market, there were numerous declines ranging between 20% and 30%. Brett_eth also noted that there have been instances of four consecutive weeks of red candles in previous bull markets, two of which occurred right after previous Bitcoin halvings, as was the case at the beginning of the month.
Concerning Developments in Bitcoin ETFs
While significant pullbacks are normal for a bull market, many are still surprised by the spread of Bitcoin selling pressure to newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs. Over $12 billion in net entries have been made to the funds since January, but these flows have stagnated over the past month. Outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have outpaced entries into all other Bitcoin ETFs.
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Delayed Reporting
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that most investors have not yet reported their ETF assets in their 13F filings. It may also take time for advisors to get involved: the BTC futures ETF BITO, which has been on the market for 30 months, has investment holdings 40% of which belong to advisors.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the recent developments in Bitcoin spot ETFs and the consistent negative weekly closes suggest a potential entry into a bear season. However, investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions as all investment and trading moves involve risks.
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