Bitcoin Eyes New ATH Amid Sticky Inflation and Looming FOMC Decision

• Short squeezes are driving Bitcoin’s recovery, with the crypto market cap rising 4% recently.

• Spot-led demand is supporting price stability around $111,000, indicating genuine buying interest over speculation.

• Upcoming CPI data expected at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC decisions add volatility risks, per Bureau of Labor Statistics projections.

Discover if Bitcoin’s bottom signals hold amid CPI and FOMC pressures in October 2025. Explore whale activity, inflation impacts, and price forecasts for informed crypto investing today.

Is Bitcoin Showing Signs of a Bottom Before CPI and FOMC?

Bitcoin appears to be forming a potential bottom as short sellers experience squeezes and spot market demand strengthens, evidenced by a 4% increase in overall crypto market capitalization. This resilience comes despite broader economic headwinds, with the price retesting $111,000 levels. However, the sustainability of this bottom hinges on upcoming macroeconomic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deliberations, which could either propel Bitcoin to new heights or trigger further corrections.

How Might Upcoming CPI Data Influence Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the CPI report on October 24, 2025, projecting a 3.1% year-over-year increase from the previous month. This data arrives just five days before the FOMC meeting, amplifying its impact on risk assets like Bitcoin. Economists, citing ongoing inflationary pressures and the lingering effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, anticipate consumer prices to continue climbing, which could dampen expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. In September 2025, similar sticky inflation led to a post-rate-cut dip in Bitcoin’s price by 8%, highlighting the vulnerability of crypto to such reports. Official data from the BLS underscores that labor market insights, delayed by government shutdowns, remain critical, potentially shifting market sentiment if weakness emerges to support dovish Fed policies.

Source: TradingEconomics

Bitcoin’s earlier rally to $125,000 in October 2025 was fueled by anticipated labor market softness, giving the Fed leeway for rate reductions. With inflation persisting, this supportive narrative has weakened, and even a 25-basis-point cut at the FOMC may not deliver the bullish impulse seen in prior cycles, as September’s events demonstrated a lack of sustained momentum.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Role Do Whales Play in Bitcoin’s Potential Push to a New All-Time High?

Whales are actively front-running bullish moves by accumulating positions in perpetual markets, where long leverage is building significantly. This positioning suggests anticipation of upward price action, though it risks amplifying volatility if the rally falters. Data from market analytics platforms indicate rising long interest, but historical patterns show such setups can lead to messy breakouts rather than smooth ascents, especially with FOMC uncertainty.

Will the FOMC Rate Decision Boost Bitcoin Prices in November 2025?

The market anticipates a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, driven by potential labor data weaknesses despite sticky inflation. This could provide short-term support for Bitcoin, similar to past cuts, but follow-through depends on CPI outcomes and broader sentiment. Investors should monitor for post-meeting reactions, as September’s cut resulted in an initial 8% price drop due to inflation surprises.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin Bottom Signals: Short squeezes and spot demand suggest a possible bottom near $111,000, but macro events like CPI could reverse gains.
• Inflation and FOMC Risks: Projected 3.1% CPI rise and rate cut expectations introduce volatility, echoing September’s post-cut weakness.
• Whale Activity Insight: Increasing long positions indicate bullish front-running, yet stacked leverage may lead to a choppy path to new all-time highs.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin’s emerging bottom signals amid short squeezes and spot-led recovery offer cautious optimism, but the looming CPI report and FOMC meeting in October 2025 pose significant hurdles due to persistent inflation. As whales position for upside, the path to a new all-time high remains nonlinear, influenced by Federal Reserve actions and economic data. Crypto investors should stay vigilant, diversifying strategies while tracking these developments for potential opportunities in the evolving market landscape. Published by COINOTAG on October 20, 2025; last updated October 20, 2025.

Source: CoinGlass