Bitcoin Faces $116K Resistance as Short-Term Profit-Taking Halts Rally; ETF Flows Hint at Undervaluation

• Short-term holders transferred 18.7k BTC to exchanges at a profit in 24 hours, capping the upward momentum.

• The $116k area acts as a significant mid-range resistance and magnetic zone for price action.

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $149.3 million in inflows on October 27, 2025, indicating ongoing institutional interest despite the pullback.

Bitcoin price analysis: Why did BTC fail to break $116k amid profit-taking and ETF flows? Discover undervaluation signals and key resistance levels. Stay informed on crypto market trends today.

Why was Bitcoin unable to rally beyond $116k?

Bitcoin experienced a strong bullish push from $107.5k lows on October 24, 2025, peaking at $116.4k by October 27, but failed to advance further due to intensified selling from short-term holders capitalizing on profits at this pivotal resistance. This profit-taking activity, evidenced by 18.7k BTC moved to exchanges, created sufficient downward pressure to reverse the rally, underscoring the role of holder behavior in short-term price dynamics. Meanwhile, broader market indicators like ETF inflows suggest underlying support, though conviction remains fragile.

Is Bitcoin undervalued right now?

Market analysts point to a divergence between Bitcoin’s current price and its estimated fair value derived from ETF capital inflows, positioning BTC as potentially undervalued by about 11%. On October 27, 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $149.3 million, a figure that, when fed into valuation models, implies a fair price of $128.4k against the actual trading level of $114.3k. Crypto expert Axel Adler Jr., in a detailed analysis shared on social media, explained that such models account for institutional accumulation trends, which have consistently driven long-term appreciation. According to data from Farside Investors, these inflows reflect steady demand from traditional finance players, yet short-term volatility masks this bullish undercurrent. Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, including major resistance zones at $117k and piled-up liquidation levels above, further complicate the picture, but historical patterns show that undervaluation phases often precede significant corrections upward. For instance, similar ETF-driven discrepancies in prior cycles led to 20-30% rallies within weeks, as reported by on-chain analytics firms like Glassnode. This scenario emphasizes the need for investors to monitor holder metrics and flow data closely, as they provide clearer signals than spot price alone in assessing true market valuation.

Bitcoin [BTC] rallied to $116.4k on the 27th of October. This was the short-term peak of a bullish push that began at the $107.5k range lows the previous Thursday.

Having reached a short-term resistance level, Bitcoin was forced to pull back in recent hours.

The $116k area holds particular significance in technical analysis, serving as a mid-range resistance and a key magnetic zone where price tends to attract and reverse. Reports from on-chain data providers highlight how such levels often align with historical supply concentrations, amplifying their impact.

However, the selling pressure from profit-taking halted further price advances, illustrating the interplay between technical barriers and behavioral factors in cryptocurrency markets.

Short-term selling caps the move

Source: Maartun on X

Crypto analyst Maartun noted a sharp rise in Short-Term Holder (STH) profit transfers in a social media post. Specifically, the Bitcoin STH P&L to Exchanges metric revealed 18.7k BTC transferred at a profit over the prior 24 hours.

This movement signifies active selling and profit realization at the local resistance, which undermined bullish efforts to push past $116k. It also points to subdued short-term holder conviction, a factor that on-chain experts from CryptoQuant associate with increased volatility in the near term. Such profit-taking events are common in bull phases, where early entrants lock in gains, but they can delay broader uptrends until new buying interest emerges.

Is Bitcoin undervalued right now?

Source: Farside Investors

On October 27, 2025, U.S. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin saw a net inflow of $149.3 million. Though modest compared to peak periods, this inflow demonstrates that institutional sentiment leans positive rather than bearish in the short term.

Yet, the overall market narrative remains mixed, with conflicting signals creating uncertainty for traders.

Mid-range resistance at $116k, coupled with short-term holder selling and a dip in Open Interest over the last day, contrasts with these ETF gains, leaving the next move ambiguous.

Potential support at $113.5k could propel Bitcoin higher if it holds, but consolidation near $116k resistance might persist without stronger catalysts. Notably, $117k emerges as a substantial supply zone, with liquidation clusters building above it, as per data from Coinglass analytics.

Source: Axel Adler Jr on X

A clear insight from recent analysis is Bitcoin’s undervaluation relative to its ETF inflows. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. applied an ETF-based pricing model in a social media discussion, estimating BTC’s fair value at $128.4k as of the latest data, while the spot price hovered at $114.3k—an 11% discount.

This model integrates cumulative institutional inflows, drawing from methodologies used by firms like Ark Invest, which have historically predicted price trajectories with reasonable accuracy during adoption surges. The discrepancy suggests untapped potential, as ETF demand continues to bridge traditional and crypto finance. Experts like those at Bloomberg Intelligence note that sustained inflows above $100 million daily often correlate with 15-25% price uplifts over subsequent months, reinforcing the case for Bitcoin’s current undervaluation. Investors should watch for shifts in holder behavior and flow volumes, as these could trigger a convergence toward the model’s target.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the Bitcoin price pullback after hitting $116k?

Profit-taking by short-term holders was the primary driver, with 18.7k BTC sent to exchanges at a profit in 24 hours, as tracked by on-chain metrics. This occurred at a key resistance level, reversing the rally that started from $107.5k lows on October 24, 2025, and highlighting the impact of supply dynamics on short-term movements.

How do Bitcoin ETF inflows influence its current valuation?

Recent $149.3 million inflows on October 27, 2025, point to institutional support, and models using these flows estimate Bitcoin’s fair value at $128.4k, well above the trading price of $114.3k. This suggests undervaluation, with experts predicting potential rallies as demand from funds like BlackRock’s IBIT continues to accumulate Bitcoin reserves.

Key Takeaways

• Profit-taking pressure: Short-term holders moved 18.7k BTC to exchanges, stalling the rally at $116k resistance and increasing volatility risks.
• ETF inflow signals: $149.3 million entered U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating steady institutional interest amid mixed market conditions.
• Undervaluation insight: Fair value models peg BTC at $128.4k based on flows, 11% above current levels—monitor for convergence opportunities.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $116.4k and subsequent pullback underscore the delicate balance between short-term holder actions and longer-term Bitcoin ETF flows, with clear signs of undervaluation emerging from analytical models. As resistance at $116k-$117k persists, potential support at $113.5k could pave the way for renewed upside if institutional demand strengthens. Market participants are advised to track on-chain data and flow metrics closely for informed positioning in this evolving Bitcoin price landscape.