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Bitcoin faces a critical juncture as a bearish RSI divergence reminiscent of 2021 signals a possible correction exceeding 50%, challenging the optimistic $150,000 year-end price target.
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Technical patterns such as an inverse cup-and-handle and warnings from veteran trader Peter Brandt highlight mounting risks to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
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According to COINOTAG, the current divergence and parabolic trendline tests could foreshadow a significant retracement, underscoring the importance of key support levels.
Bitcoin’s RSI divergence and technical patterns suggest a potential 50% correction, casting doubt on the $150K target while analysts debate its future trajectory.
Bearish RSI Divergence Signals Potential Major Correction for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s recent price action reveals a bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart, a technical indicator that has historically preceded sharp corrections. This divergence occurs when Bitcoin’s price reaches new highs, but the RSI fails to confirm the momentum, indicating weakening buying pressure. The current setup mirrors the 2021 cycle, which culminated in a 61% price correction. If history repeats, Bitcoin could see a decline toward its 200-week EMA near $64,000, representing a potential 50%+ drop from recent highs.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Bitcoin is forming an inverse cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, with a critical neckline around $100,800. A breakdown below this level could accelerate the sell-off toward $91,000, aligning with the 200-day EMA. Traders should watch the RSI closely; a drop below 50 would confirm intensifying downside momentum. Conversely, reclaiming the 20-day EMA resistance near $105,000 is crucial for bulls to sustain upward momentum and keep the $150,000 target within reach.
Veteran Analyst Peter Brandt Highlights Parabolic Trendline as Key Bullish Indicator
Peter Brandt, a respected figure in technical analysis, emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming its parabolic trendline to maintain the current bull cycle. In his May 2025 analysis, Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern that could signal a market top if Bitcoin fails to break above this trendline soon. According to Brandt, failure to do so may trigger a typical 50–60% drawdown, consistent with previous cycle peaks. This perspective reinforces the cautionary signals from the RSI divergence and chart patterns, suggesting that the $150,000 year-end target is increasingly uncertain.
Contrasting Views: Gold’s Historical Breakout and Bull Flag Patterns Support Optimism
Despite bearish technical signals, some analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. They draw parallels between Bitcoin’s current market structure and gold’s explosive breakout in the early 2000s, suggesting that BTC could follow a similar trajectory toward new all-time highs. This analogy supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching or even surpassing the $150,000 mark by the end of 2025.
Onchain Metrics and Bull Flag Formation Bolster Positive Outlook
Analyst Tony Severino points to a potential bull flag pattern in Bitcoin’s price action, a continuation pattern that often precedes strong upward moves. Complementing this, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlights critical onchain indicators such as the NUPL/MVRV ratio. Adler notes that if this ratio breaks and sustains above 1.0, it could signal the start of a new bullish impulse, reminiscent of the rallies observed in 2017 and 2021. This scenario could propel Bitcoin’s price toward a range between $150,000 and $175,000, reinforcing the bullish case despite current technical headwinds.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook is marked by a tension between bearish technical signals and bullish fundamental narratives. The bearish RSI divergence and inverse cup-and-handle pattern warn of a possible correction exceeding 50%, potentially delaying or derailing the $150,000 year-end target. However, historical analogies to gold’s breakout, combined with onchain metrics and bull flag formations, provide a compelling counterpoint supporting continued upside potential. Investors should monitor key support levels around $100,800 and $91,000, as well as the parabolic trendline highlighted by Peter Brandt, to gauge Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Staying informed and agile will be essential as the market navigates this critical phase.
