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Bitcoin’s price action is under intense scrutiny as the cryptocurrency approaches the critical $108,000 mark, with prediction markets showing a notable shift in sentiment.
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Recent technical indicators reveal a tug-of-war between bullish momentum and bearish resistance, creating uncertainty about whether Bitcoin can close above this psychological threshold by the July 4 deadline.
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According to Myriad, a prediction market developed by COINOTAG’s parent company Dastan, the odds have swung to a 69% probability that Bitcoin will not close above $108,000 this week, highlighting growing bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin faces strong resistance near $108,000 as prediction markets favor a bearish close by July 4, with technical indicators signaling a challenging breakout ahead.
Bitcoin’s Resistance at $108,000: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin’s price has hovered just below the $108,000 resistance level for several sessions, creating a critical battleground for bulls and bears alike. The distinction between merely touching this price and closing above it is significant, especially in the context of short-term trading strategies. Over the past 30 four-hour sessions, Bitcoin has only managed to close above $108,000 three times, underscoring the strength of this resistance zone.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 17, indicating a weak trend and suggesting that Bitcoin is drifting sideways rather than exhibiting strong directional momentum. This lack of trend strength is corroborated by repeated failed attempts to break through the $107,500-$108,000 range, with candlestick wicks illustrating sellers’ dominance at these levels. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator also points to bearish impulses dominating shorter timeframes, reinforcing the likelihood of a near-term pullback.
Volume Profile and Moving Averages: Mixed Signals for Bitcoin’s Next Move
The Volume Profile Visible Range shows Bitcoin trading above the point of control, a typically bullish sign indicating that the current price level is supported by significant trading activity. However, this bullish indication is tempered by the proximity to resistance and the absence of strong momentum, which increases the risk of a mean reversion or price pullback.
Meanwhile, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains above the 200-period EMA on the four-hour chart, maintaining a bullish golden cross formation. This alignment suggests that the broader trend is still upward despite short-term bearish pressures. However, Bitcoin’s price dipping below the 50-period EMA signals caution, as it reflects emerging bearish sentiment in the immediate timeframe.
The Impact of Weekend Trading and Market Liquidity on Bitcoin’s Price Action
With the July 4 deadline falling on a Friday night (11:59 PM UTC), Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a close above $108,000 is further complicated by typical weekend market dynamics. Institutional participation tends to decline over weekends, leading to lower trading volumes and wider bid-ask spreads. This environment favors short-term traders and “crypto degens” but makes it more difficult for sustained breakouts to occur due to reduced buying power.
Lower liquidity during weekends often results in increased price volatility but also heightens the risk of false breakouts. For Bitcoin to close above $108,000 under these conditions, it would require a significant influx of buying volume or a catalyst strong enough to overcome the usual weekend market inertia.
Key Levels and Indicators to Monitor for Traders
Traders should closely watch the following price levels and indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s potential trajectory:
- Immediate resistance: $108,000 – The critical threshold for this week’s close.
- Critical support: $105,000 – A psychological level that could provide a safety net for bulls.
- Next resistance: $110,000 – The previous all-time high zone, representing a significant upside target if $108,000 is breached.
Additionally, an increase in the ADX above 20 combined with rising volume would be early technical signals of a potential sustained breakout. Conversely, failure to break these levels with weak momentum may confirm the bearish outlook suggested by the prediction markets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s challenge to close above $108,000 by the July 4 deadline is a tightly contested scenario shaped by technical resistance, weak trend momentum, and reduced weekend liquidity. While the broader trend remains bullish as indicated by moving averages, short-term indicators and prediction market odds currently favor a bearish close. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts in volume or news catalysts that could disrupt this balance. Ultimately, the outcome hinges on whether Bitcoin can muster enough buying power to overcome entrenched resistance and close decisively above this key psychological level.
