Bitcoin Faces Stagnation Below $85,000 Amid ETF Outflows and Market Indecision, Yet Optimism Persists

• Bitcoin struggles under $85,000, resulting in $171 million in ETF outflows, signaling waning investor confidence and market uncertainty.

• Open interest remains stagnant below $36 billion, indicating indecision among traders, while positive funding rates hint at renewed optimism.

• Despite recent challenges, Bitcoin’s market sentiment shows more calls than puts, suggesting expectations of a potential bullish move if price surpasses $85,000.

This article examines the challenges Bitcoin faces under $85,000, including ETF outflows, stagnant open interest, and optimistic funding rates.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows Are Concerning

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been experiencing heavy outflows recently, with $171.1 million in outflows recorded on Wednesday, April 16 alone, marking the highest for this week. This shift signals waning investor confidence in Bitcoin as market conditions remain bearish. As more investors pull their funds, it highlights a diminishing trust in Bitcoin’s short-term prospects.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows. Source: Farside

The ongoing outflows suggest that the broader market sentiment is souring towards Bitcoin. The heavy movement of funds away from Bitcoin ETFs shows that investors are growing cautious, driven by the failure of Bitcoin to gain a foothold above $85,000. This lack of growth in price has led to uncertainty and hesitation among traders.

Open Interest Needs A Push

The open interest in Bitcoin remains under $36 billion, a sign that traders are skeptical about Bitcoin’s immediate future. Despite some early optimism earlier in the year, the lack of any recovery or significant price movement has kept the open interest stagnant.

Bitcoin Open Interest. Source: Glassnode

This flatness in open interest indicates that Bitcoin is facing a period of indecision in the market. Traders seem hesitant to make aggressive bets on either direction, given the stagnant price and broader market conditions. Without an increase in open interest, Bitcoin may struggle to break out of its current range.

Funding Rate Recovers

Despite the skepticism, Bitcoin’s funding rate has seen a recent shift. After being negative for some time, it has turned positive in the past few hours, reflecting a slight uptick in market optimism.

Bitcoin Funding Rate. Source: Deribit

While the positive funding rate indicates renewed optimism, it is still early to determine whether this sentiment will result in sustained upward price action. A sustained positive funding rate could suggest that Bitcoin might see a more significant rebound if the broader market conditions improve.

Calls Vs. Puts

Open interest data further backs this optimistic shift, as call options now dominate the market, with over 169,760 call contracts placed.

BTC Options Open Interest by Type. Source: Deribit

The predominance of calls over puts suggests that market participants are expecting a bullish move. This is despite the recent lack of progress in Bitcoin’s price. Whether this optimism will be realized depends on broader market trends and Bitcoin’s ability to surpass the $85,000 barrier.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin grapples with significant resistance at $85,000, market participants are showing signs of caution and discernment. While ETF outflows and stagnant open interest underscore current uncertainties, the rebound in funding rates and predominance of calls indicate a flicker of optimism among traders. Moving forward, the ability to break this resistance level may be critical for restoring investor confidence.