Bitcoin Forecast: PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model Predicts Post-Halving Surge

  • Bitcoin’s momentum appears to be entering a bullish phase, as indicated by historical patterns.
  • The renowned S2F model, adapted by crypto analyst PlanB, offers insight into Bitcoin’s projected performance.
  • According to PlanB, significant price movements often follow Bitcoin halving events, sparking investor interest.

Discover why Bitcoin’s latest phase might herald a new bullish cycle, based on PlanB’s S2F model insights and historical performance.

Bitcoin’s Emerging Bull Phase: Insights from PlanB’s S2F Model

PlanB’s renowned stock-to-flow (S2F) model, initially designed for traditional commodities, has been tailored to forecast Bitcoin’s market trajectory. The model’s key premise is that an asset’s price ascends as its scarcity increases. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced robust bull runs post-halving, marked by the appearance of a ‘red dot’ in the S2F model, signaling the initiation of a new cycle.

Understanding the Impact of Bitcoin Halving Events

Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years, reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation. This scarcity mechanism has historically catalyzed significant price rallies. PlanB highlights that past halvings—in 2012, 2016, and 2020—preceded substantial Bitcoin price increases, reinforcing the model’s predictive reliability.

The Role of Realized Price as a Support Indicator

PlanB also emphasizes the importance of the realized price metric, which calculates the average price of all Bitcoins in circulation based on their last transaction value. This metric serves as a critical support level during bull markets. Historical data shows that the five-month realized price has consistently acted as a floor during market corrections, providing strong support and enabling recovery during bull cycles.

Predictive Value in Current Market Dynamics

Recent market analyses indicate that Bitcoin’s price bounced off the five-month realized price level, reaffirming its role as a reliable support indicator. For instance, during the 2020 bull market, Bitcoin prices rebounded from this level multiple times, suggesting a similar pattern might unfold in the current cycle. Investors and traders should watch this metric closely as it offers valuable insights into potential market trends and support levels.


PlanB’s analyses, underpinned by the S2F model and the realized price metric, suggest that Bitcoin is poised for another bullish phase post-halving. By understanding these models, investors can better anticipate market movements and make informed decisions. As always, while historical patterns provide valuable insights, they do not guarantee future performance, underscoring the importance of comprehensive market analysis and risk management.

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Gideon Wolf
Gideon Wolf
GideonWolff is a 27-year-old technical analyst and journalist with extensive experience in the cryptocurrency industry. With a focus on technical analysis and news reporting, GideonWolff provides valuable insights on market trends and potential opportunities for both investors and those interested in the world of cryptocurrency.

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