Bitcoin Gains May Outpace Crypto Treasury Companies, Raising Risk of Forced Selling

• Key reason: market saturation driving mNAV compression

• Many crypto treasury stocks fell far more than the underlying crypto in 2025; investors worry about debt-driven liquidations.

• Data: roughly 140 public companies follow a crypto treasury strategy (CoinGecko); several firms lost 70–97% YTD.

Meta description: Crypto treasury companies underperform underlying crypto assets as market saturation compresses mNAV; learn risks and key metrics. Read analysis by COINOTAG.

What are crypto treasury companies and why are many lagging their assets?

Crypto treasury companies are public firms that hold significant cryptocurrency reserves on their balance sheets. They are lagging underlying crypto prices because market saturation has compressed the multiple on net asset value (mNAV), and investor concerns about leverage and forced selling are weighing on share prices.

Although crypto treasury companies have enjoyed short-term price gains, most have underperformed the underlying assets they hold.

Crypto asset prices retraced this week, but the spot market is faring better than most digital asset treasury companies. Some treasury stocks have lost over 90% of their value due to investor concern and business-model sustainability questions.

Bitcoin’s price action, shown in candles, compared to Strategy’s price action, shown as a magenta line. Source: TradingView

How has the largest Bitcoin treasury company performed compared to BTC?

Strategy — the largest Bitcoin treasury company — is down about 45% from its all-time high of $543 per share reached in November. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) is up roughly 10% over the same period, with successive new highs since December and an August peak recorded above $123,000.

Strategy has not recaptured its prior peak in 2024 and has underperformed BTC materially. Investors who expected treasury stocks to amplify crypto gains instead faced significant downside when market sentiment shifted.

Why is mNAV compressing across the sector?

Analysts at Standard Chartered cite market saturation as the main driver of mNAV compression. With approximately 140 public companies adopting a crypto treasury strategy (CoinGecko), competition for investor capital and discounted valuations have reduced the typical premium between enterprise value and underlying crypto holdings.

Compression occurs when markets assign lower multiples to companies relative to their net asset value, reflecting concerns over liquidity, transparency, and potential balance-sheet liabilities.

How are altcoin treasury plays faring?

Altcoin treasury companies show even steeper declines. SharpLink Gaming, an Ether (ETH) treasury play, fell about 87% since its May 2025 peak near $124 and traded around $15.72 at the time of reporting, while ETH rallied roughly 115% over the same window.

Helius Medical Technologies, a Solana (SOL) treasury company, reportedly lost over 97% year-to-date (Yahoo Finance). SOL itself has retraced but remains closer to its prior highs than many treasury equities.

SOL price action displayed in candles compared to Helius Medical Technologies, which is shown as a magenta-colored line. Source: TradingView

CEA Industries, which transitioned to a BNB treasury strategy in 2025, declined roughly 77% from its August all-time high above $34 and traded near $7.75 as BNB reached new highs above $1,000 in September. These divergences highlight the risk of equity-layer dislocations versus spot crypto markets.

When could treasury company performance pressure crypto markets?

Concerns focus on the potential for forced selling. If leveraged treasury firms must meet debt covenants or PIPE commitments, equity or asset sales could amplify downward price moves in crypto markets. Analysts caution this could be a contagion channel in a downturn.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are crypto treasury companies a safe way to gain crypto exposure?

They are not equivalent to direct crypto ownership. Treasury companies add equity-market risk, corporate governance variables, and potential leverage, which can lead to larger downside than holding the underlying crypto directly.

How many public companies have adopted a crypto treasury model?

About 140 public companies have adopted a crypto treasury strategy, according to CoinGecko. Increased numbers have contributed to valuation compression across the sector.

Could treasury companies cause a market downturn?

Yes. If many treasury firms face margin calls or debt maturities simultaneously, forced selling could create downward pressure on crypto spot prices and liquidity.

Key Takeaways

• Market saturation: An expanding cohort of treasury companies has compressed sector-wide mNAVs.
• Equity vs. spot divergence: Many treasury equities have fallen far more than corresponding crypto assets.
• Contagion risk: Forced selling to meet obligations is a plausible transmission channel to crypto markets.

Conclusion

Crypto treasury companies present a distinct investment profile from direct crypto ownership. Crypto treasury equities carry corporate, liquidity and leverage risks that have led to steep underperformance versus underlying assets. Investors should prioritize balance-sheet analysis and monitor debt timelines to gauge potential market impact. COINOTAG will continue to track developments and update this report as new data emerges.

Publication date: 2025-09-26 — Author: COINOTAG