Bitcoin Halving Cycles Theory: When Bull Market is Coming Back?

• As Bitcoin experiences its first early top for this cycle on July 13th, 2023, many analysts and investors are looking at 2019 for comparable trends.
• However, the case for 2015 could offer more striking parallels, suggesting that Bitcoin could be gearing up for bullish activity going into the “blue year” of 2024.
• Our in-depth analysis looks at historical data and future cycle predictions, providing actionable insights for the years leading up to 2025 and beyond.

An analysis of Bitcoin’s price action, comparing the recent early top with past cycles to provide an updated forecast for 2025, focusing on why the “blue year” of 2024 may be key.

The Early Top of 2023: Why 2019 May Be the Wrong Parallel

As Bitcoin marks its first early top of this cycle on July 13th, 2023, many are quick to draw parallels with 2019. However, the macroeconomic conditions, institutional involvement, and underlying fundamentals today are vastly different from those in 2019. For instance, the current level of corporate adoption and more favorable regulatory landscapes can act as stronger catalysts for price action.

Why 2015 Offers a More Plausible Analogy

Instead of 2019, a closer look at the 2015 cycle could provide better insights. In 2015, Bitcoin bottomed out in August and experienced a rally in November. A similar pattern seems to be unfolding now, giving credence to the notion that we could see significant bullish action heading into the “blue year” of 2024. The year 2024 has historically performed well as Bitcoin prepares for new All-Time Highs (ATHs), making it an important timeframe to watch.

The ‘Blue Year’ Phenomenon: What Could 2024 Hold?

The concept of a “blue year” in the Bitcoin cycle refers to years that have historically shown bullish trends, usually preluding new ATHs. As we only have two more months in the current “green accumulation year,” all eyes are on 2024 for the next significant price movements. With a likely price of about 48k projected for the early top around July 9th, 2024, there’s an optimistic outlook that Bitcoin will break new barriers.

Long-term Projections: What to Expect Up to 2025 and Beyond

Considering the cycles, the next early top is predicted to be around July 9th, 2024, with a likely price of about $48,000. Following this, the next cycle top is anticipated around November 28th, 2025, with an expected price ranging from $90,000 to $130,000. The following cycle’s bottom is still indeterminate but expected around late November 2026. While these are speculative, the historical cycles offer invaluable guidance.

Conclusion

While the temptation to draw parallels between Bitcoin’s recent price actions with past years like 2019 is strong, a closer look reveals that a different historical cycle, like that of 2015, may offer more accurate forecasts. As we look forward to the “blue year” of 2024, expectations are high for significant bullish action, potentially leading to new ATHs. Long-term projections also offer a positive outlook, albeit speculative. As always, investors should exercise caution and consider multiple factors when navigating the volatile crypto markets.