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Bitcoin’s recent price rejection near $112K contrasts sharply with record-breaking accumulation by long-term holders, signaling a complex market dynamic.
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While whale wallets continue to offload significant BTC amounts, long-term holders have added over 881,000 BTC in the past month, underscoring divergent strategies.
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According to CryptoQuant, the largest single-day inflow of 30,784 BTC into accumulation wallets highlights sustained confidence despite short-term volatility.
Bitcoin faces resistance near $112K amid whale selling, yet record $3.3B inflows by long-term holders suggest strong accumulation and potential for future breakout.
Whale Selling vs. Long-Term Holder Accumulation: Divergent Bitcoin Market Forces
Bitcoin’s market currently exhibits a pronounced divergence between short-term profit-taking by whales and steadfast accumulation by long-term holders. Notably, a whale wallet has deposited 1,000 BTC valued at $106 million to Binance, continuing a selling streak initiated in April 2024. This wallet alone has liquidated approximately 6,500 BTC, signaling tactical profit realization as Bitcoin approaches critical resistance levels. However, the whale retains 3,500 BTC, indicating a measured rather than complete exit.
Conversely, long-term holders (LTHs) have demonstrated remarkable conviction, adding an unprecedented 881,578 BTC over the last 30 days. These accumulation wallets, typically unassociated with exchanges, now control 2.91 million BTC, reflecting a robust belief in Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation potential. This juxtaposition highlights a market in flux, where short-term volatility coexists with foundational strength from committed holders.
Source: CryptoQuant
Technical Resistance at $112K: Assessing Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to breach the $112,000 resistance level, a critical supply wall that has capped upward momentum. Despite this, the overall market structure remains bullish, supported by a rising trendline that provides dynamic support. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 50 signals diminishing buying momentum, increasing the likelihood of a near-term pullback.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim and sustain above the $106,000 support zone, a retracement toward $101,000 becomes increasingly probable. Conversely, a decisive break above $112,000 could trigger a short squeeze, forcing late short sellers to cover positions and potentially accelerating gains. This price congestion zone is pivotal and will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
Source: TradingView
Network Value to Transaction Ratio Signals Potential Overvaluation
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, a key indicator of Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its transactional utility, surged by 15.21% to 36.49. This increase reflects a growing disconnect between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and the volume of on-chain transactions. Historically, elevated NVT ratios have preceded speculative peaks, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price appreciation may be outpacing its fundamental usage.
However, elevated NVT values can also manifest during early phases of sustained bull markets, particularly when holders prioritize accumulation over spending. Therefore, while caution is warranted, the current NVT spike does not definitively signal an imminent top but rather highlights the need for close monitoring of transactional activity trends.
Source: CryptoQuant
Active vs. New Addresses: User Engagement Trends
Data from IntoTheBlock reveals a nuanced picture of Bitcoin network activity. Active addresses increased by 1.69% over the past week, indicating sustained engagement from existing users. In contrast, new address growth slowed by 2.36%, suggesting a deceleration in fresh user adoption. This divergence implies that current market momentum is primarily driven by internal activity rather than new capital inflows.
While this dynamic can support short-term price rallies, long-term growth typically depends on expanding the user base. Nevertheless, the rise in active wallets underscores the commitment of existing participants, which contributes to network stability amid uncertain market conditions.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Liquidation Clusters Highlight Potential Volatility Zones
The Binance 24-hour liquidation heatmap reveals concentrated long liquidations clustered around the $105,000 and $102,000 price levels. These zones represent critical stop-loss areas where cascading liquidations could amplify price swings. Should Bitcoin dip below these thresholds, increased volatility is likely as forced selling intensifies.
Conversely, maintaining support above $104,000 could trap short sellers, triggering a relief rally. These liquidation clusters often serve as pivotal inflection points, magnifying momentum in either direction. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely for potential sharp price movements.
Source: CoinGlass
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s market currently reflects a tension between short-term whale selling and robust long-term holder accumulation, underscoring a complex but fundamentally strong outlook. While technical resistance near $112K and elevated valuation metrics warrant caution, the sustained inflows into accumulation wallets and steady active user engagement suggest underlying confidence in Bitcoin’s future appreciation.
Traders and investors should closely watch key support levels around $106K and liquidation clusters near $105K and $102K for potential volatility triggers. Ultimately, if Bitcoin can maintain these supports and overcome the $112K supply wall, the groundwork may be laid for a significant breakout fueled by long-term holders’ conviction.
