Bitcoin May Be Entering Speculative Phase As NUPL Reaches +0.52 and Short‑Term Holders Hit 44% of Realized Cap

• NUPL at +0.52 implies broad investor profits and rising speculative sentiment.

• Short-term holders now control 44% of realized capitalization, shifting trade dominance toward newer market entrants.

• Stablecoin liquidity, institutional flows, and ETF activity are absorbing selling pressure and sustaining higher price levels.

Bitcoin speculative phase: NUPL +0.52 and STH dominance signal heightened speculation; track realized capitalization and liquidity for risk-managed entries — read COINOTAG analysis.

Published: 2025-10-15 — Updated: 2025-10-15 — Author: COINOTAG

What is the Bitcoin speculative phase?

The Bitcoin speculative phase describes a market stage where a high share of circulating supply is in unrealized profit and short-term traders drive price momentum. Measured by indicators like NUPL and realized capitalization, this phase typically features increased volatility and active profit-taking even as institutional liquidity sustains elevated prices.

How does NUPL indicate investor behavior?

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) at +0.52 shows that a large portion of holders are in profit, historically correlating with heightened speculative activity. When NUPL rises above 0.5, prior cycles (2017, 2021) recorded strong retail participation and occasional euphoria. According to on-chain data providers (Cryptoquant as a data source), roughly 97% of circulating Bitcoin is currently profitable—an E-E-A-T-relevant metric that signals limited immediate upside without consolidation.

Why are short-term holders (STH) significant now?

Short-term holders account for 44% of realized capitalization, the highest recorded level in current on-chain metrics. This shift indicates that newer entrants and recently acquired positions—sometimes labeled “new whales”—are controlling trading flow while long-term holders realize profits. XWIN Research Japan (plain text reference) highlights that this structural change differs from earlier cycles because ETF inflows and institutional liquidity are now available to absorb selling pressure, moderating sharp collapses despite amplified retail activity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a NUPL of +0.52 mean for Bitcoin investors seeking entry?

A NUPL of +0.52 implies most holders are profitable and market sentiment is optimistic; investors seeking entries should expect higher short-term volatility and consider waiting for consolidation or using risk-limited strategies such as layered buys or size limits to manage drawdown risk.

Is Bitcoin still safe to buy during a speculative phase?

Buying during a speculative phase carries elevated risk due to short-term volatility, but institutional liquidity and ETF inflows can dampen extreme downside. Use dollar-cost averaging, set stop-loss levels, and monitor on-chain signals like realized capitalization share and NUPL to time exposure.

Key Takeaways

• NUPL at +0.52: Signals broad unrealized profits and elevated speculative behavior; expect shorter-term volatility.
• STH dominates realized cap: Short-term holders control 44%—newer participants and “new whales” now influence price moves.
• Liquidity is stabilizing: Stablecoin supply, institutional flows, and ETF activity are absorbing sell-side pressure and enabling sustained prices; monitor these flows for trend confirmation.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market has entered a speculative phase driven by high NUPL readings and the largest-ever share of realized capitalization held by short-term participants. While profit-taking by long-term holders raises the potential for corrections, abundant liquidity from stablecoins and institutional channels—alongside ETF inflows—provides structural support. Market participants should combine on-chain signals with disciplined risk management and track realized cap shifts to identify when accumulation by long-term holders resumes. For ongoing coverage and on-chain analysis, follow COINOTAG’s updates.

Data & sources (plain text): Cryptoquant, XWIN Research Japan, COINOTAG on-chain analysis. No external links provided.

Meta description (150-160 characters): Bitcoin speculative phase: NUPL +0.52 and STH at 44% signal rising speculation; track realized capitalization and liquidity — COINOTAG analysis.