- Significantly, the prevailing sentiment among most market participants is that Bitcoin is gearing up for a potential rally towards a new all-time high.
- An analyst compared the current market cycle with detailed insights into Bitcoin’s phases, comparing it with the 2018-2021 and 2014-2017 cycles.
- The current analysis positions Bitcoin into the pre and post-halving stages, with the fourth halving event expected to take place in April 2024.
While Bitcoin’s price has faced selling pressure recently, according to chart analysis, a rally could soon commence.
Bitcoin Price May Initiate a Parabolic Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to surpass the $38,000 level recently, but the market comfortably maintains a position above the $35,000 support zone as it anticipates the next significant move. Significantly, the prevailing sentiment among most market participants is that Bitcoin is gearing up for a potential rally towards a new all-time high.
This optimism is strengthened by potential developments around a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval and developments related to next year’s halving event. In this context, a cryptocurrency analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is preparing for a possible parabolic rally within the next few weeks, as it enters the pre and post-halving stages of the digital asset’s market cycle.
The analyst compared the current market cycle with detailed insights into Bitcoin’s phases, comparing it with the 2018-2021 and 2014-2017 cycles.
The current analysis positions Bitcoin into the pre and post-halving stages, with the fourth halving event expected to take place in April 2024. At this stage, Bitcoin’s price typically reaches or exceeds the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, except for exceptional situations like the pandemic crash in early 2020.
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, set at $50,000. According to the analyst’s model, the cryptocurrency is expected to reach this level within a short period or 3-4 months following the halving event. The analysis also emphasizes the importance of maintaining support above the $27,000 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Bitcoin’s Next Target
The analysis also identified historical cycles, noting that the 2017 cycle peaked at the 2.382 Fibonacci extension, while the 2021 cycle reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Analysts pointed out the “diminishing returns” theory, which expects each successive cycle not to significantly surpass the previous one.
With increasing adoption, the analysis suggests not expecting more than the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, slightly above $120,000. A more conservative estimate places the possible worst-case scenario at $100,000.
It’s important to note that the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s value depends on various fundamental factors such as ETF approval, capital inflows, and other market dynamics. In the meantime, the analyst noted that Bitcoin has experienced volatility due to recent news related to ETF approval.
Recent developments regarding ETF approval are among the fundamental reasons for Bitcoin’s recent rally. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) once again delayed approval for a spot ETF. In the latest update, the SEC deferred the approval of Franklin Templeton’s and Global X’s spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
At the same time, reports on approval have intensified, along with indications that the SEC is in contact with exchanges regarding a series of spot Bitcoin ETF applications. However, despite speculation around approval, it’s important to note that nothing has changed.
