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Bitcoin remains resilient above the critical $100k support level, signaling ongoing bullish control despite recent market cooling.
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Long-term holder accumulation and robust ETF inflows are providing optimism for a potential recovery amid geopolitical tensions.
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According to COINOTAG source Adler Crypto Insights, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase index currently indicates normal market activity with demand resumption.
Bitcoin holds above $100k with strong long-term holder support and ETF inflows, maintaining bullish momentum amid geopolitical uncertainty and market cooling.
Bitcoin’s $102.5k Support Level Holds Amid Market Cooling and Volatility
Bitcoin’s price action has demonstrated resilience by maintaining a key support level at $102.5k, which technical analysis and MVRV pricing bands have identified as a critical threshold. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $104k twice but rebounded, trading at $104.6k at the time of writing. This price behavior aligns with earlier predictions of short-term volatility driven by institutional short bets, as evidenced by the divergence between spot and perpetual futures markets. Despite external pressures, including geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has not succumbed to a significant corrective phase, instead entering a “cooling down” period where bulls retain control as long as the price remains above this support.
Heat Macro Phase Index Reveals Market Sentiment and Demand Dynamics
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr’s weekly Adler Insights post introduces the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase, a composite metric that integrates four key indicators to gauge market “heating”: the normalized MVRV Z-score, the aSOPR 14-day simple moving average, the long-term holder to short-term holder (LTH-STH) cost basis, and the 10-day moving average of ETF inflows in dollars. The index peaked at 0.45 on May 22nd, coinciding with Bitcoin’s $111k high, and cooled to 0.39 by June 5th during an accumulation phase near $101k. Currently, the index stands at 0.41, signaling a resumption of demand and stable market activity. A drop below 0.39, especially if paired with a price fall under $100k, would indicate a shift into a corrective phase, altering the bullish outlook.
Source: Adler Crypto Insights
Long-Term Holder Accumulation and ETF Inflows Bolster Bullish Sentiment
Despite the market’s cooling momentum, long-term Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate, signaling confidence in the asset’s medium to long-term prospects. The spot taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) over the past 90 days reveals dominant taker buy volume, contrasting sharply with the heavy selling pressure experienced during the November-December 2024 downturn. This sustained accumulation by holders underscores a strategic decision to HODL rather than capitulate, reinforcing the bullish narrative. Additionally, strong ETF inflows have provided institutional support, mitigating the impact of geopolitical uncertainties and short-term volatility. These factors collectively suggest that while a sustained bull trend may take time to materialize, the foundation for recovery remains intact.
Source: CryptoQuant
Geopolitical Risks and Market Outlook
The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have introduced an element of uncertainty that could delay a robust bullish trend. However, Bitcoin’s limited reaction to recent developments suggests a degree of market maturity and resilience. Institutional investors appear to be navigating these risks with cautious optimism, as reflected in ETF inflows and long-term holder behavior. Market participants should monitor the $100k support level closely, as a breach combined with a declining Heat Macro Phase index could signal a transition into a corrective phase. Until then, the balance of evidence favors a controlled cooling period with potential for recovery.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the $100k support level amidst cooling market conditions and geopolitical uncertainty highlights the strength of underlying bullish factors. Long-term holder accumulation and sustained ETF inflows provide a solid foundation for potential recovery, while the Heat Macro Phase index offers valuable insights into market sentiment and demand dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant for any signs of a corrective phase but can take encouragement from the current stability and resilience exhibited by Bitcoin.
