Bitcoin May Rally on Potential 25-Basis-Point Fed Cut, but Short-Term Sell-the-News Pullback Possible

• Immediate effect: brief risk-on rally in crypto following a 25 BPS Fed rate cut

• Market risk: “sell the news” pullbacks can trigger short-term corrections, especially in speculative tokens

• Outlook: multiple 2025 cuts remain likely according to major banks and economic forecasters; long-term liquidity supports higher asset prices

Meta description: Fed rate cut expected to be 25 BPS; crypto markets may rally short-term but face “sell the news” risk—learn how traders plan for volatility.

Published: 2025-09-17 | Updated: 2025-09-17

What is the expected Federal Reserve rate cut and how will it affect crypto?

The Fed rate cut expected Wednesday is widely forecast at 25 basis points (BPS). Markets expect a short-term boost to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates increase liquidity, but traders warn of immediate profit-taking that can compress short-term gains.

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, appears set to begin easing policy, and analysts see a 25 BPS cut as the most likely initial move.

A chart that plots Hawkish or Dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Higher scores mean the Fed is Hawkish or less likely to lower rates. Source: Oxford Economics

How likely is a 25 BPS cut vs. a 50 BPS surprise?

Market-implied probabilities from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) show most traders favour a 25 BPS cut, with only a small fraction (circa 6%) assigning a 50 BPS outcome. A 50 BPS move would alarm investors about economic weakness and could weigh on markets short-term.

Analyst views differ: some major banks predict multiple cuts through 2025, while select advisory firms call larger sequences optimistic. Oxford Economics and other forecasters are cited in market commentary as tempering expectations for aggressive easing.

The unemployment rate has spiked since 2024, giving the Federal Reserve more reasons to slash interest rates. Source: Oxford Economics

Why do rate cuts matter to crypto traders?

Rate cuts change liquidity: lower yields push investors from cash into risk assets, lifting crypto prices over time. Crypto’s historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles makes Fed policy central to market direction.

Experience from prior easing cycles shows initial rallies can be followed by sharp re-pricing when expectations diverge from outcomes.

Target probabilities for interest rate cuts. Source: CME Group

How should traders prepare for a Fed decision?

Traders typically reduce leverage ahead of the announcement, set clear stop-loss levels, and trim exposure to highly speculative positions. Risk management is front-page: memecoins and low-liquidity tokens are most exposed to abrupt sell-offs.

Practical steps include reducing margin, diversifying stablecoins vs. spot holdings, and monitoring real-time CME-implied probabilities and employment data revisions.

Plain-text sources cited in market coverage: Coin Bureau, Oxford Economics, CME Group, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, XBTO.

Related: Crypto markets prepare for Fed rate cut amid governor shakeup

Frequently Asked Questions

Will a 25 BPS Fed rate cut cause a sustained crypto bull market?

A 25 BPS cut is more likely to seed a medium-term tailwind rather than an immediate, sustained bull market; sustained gains depend on follow-up cuts and macro fundamentals such as unemployment and inflation trends.

How fast do crypto markets react to Fed rate changes?

Crypto often reacts within hours to days. Initial rallies can be rapid, but “sell the news” reversals frequently occur within 24–72 hours as traders reassess liquidity and sentiment.

Which crypto segments are most at risk during a “sell the news” event?

Speculative segments—memecoins, very low-cap tokens, and high-leverage positions—are most vulnerable to quick unwind and liquidity-driven price drops.

Key Takeaways

• Immediate outlook: 25 BPS Fed rate cut likely to trigger a short-term crypto rally.
• Risk: “Sell the news” pullbacks can offset gains, especially in speculative tokens.
• Strategy: Emphasize risk management—reduce leverage, manage stops, and diversify holdings.

Conclusion

The expected Federal Reserve rate cut is a pivotal catalyst for crypto markets. While a 25 BPS cut may lift prices in the near term, traders should prepare for rapid corrections. Monitor employment data, CME probabilities, and macro commentary from major financial institutions to navigate post-announcement volatility.