Bitcoin May See Short-Term Pullback Despite 90% Supply in Profit, Derivatives Flows Could Drive Recovery to $115K

• High supply-in-profit (≈90%) commonly signals a bull phase, not an automatic top.

• Short-term bearish pressure may persist unless derivatives flows and on-chain inflows confirm renewed buying.

• Key on-chain and technical levels: 90% supply-in-profit threshold, $113K 50-period MA, and $115K resistance.

Bitcoin supply in profit: analysis of BTC price outlook, 90% threshold, and short-term triggers by COINOTAG — read actionable signals and next steps now for trading guidance.

What is Bitcoin supply in profit?

Bitcoin supply in profit is the percentage of circulating BTC currently above its average purchase price. It is an on-chain heat metric that front-loads market sentiment: readings near 90% commonly coincide with bull market phases, but they do not guarantee an immediate top or a sharp correction.

How does the current supply-in-profit level affect BTC price action?

At ~90%, the supply-in-profit level reflects broad unrealized gains, which can fuel both holding and profit-taking. Short-term price action depends on derivatives and ETF flows. Positive spot ETF inflows since Aug 25 support price, but weak derivatives flows and declining volume increase the risk of a temporary pullback.

Key Takeaways

A high percentage supply in profit is not always worrisome, but also a by-product of a bullish market phase. Bitcoin was in one right now, but it is bearishly poised for the coming days.

Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at the $112.1K level, a 0.36% gain over the past 24 hours, at press time. The short-term price action leaned bearishly, although there was a chance of a bounce toward $115K.

The market sentiment appeared neutral to bullish. The Fear and Greed Index was at 46, which was neutral.

Last weekend, BTC experienced a pullback from $117K to $109K and has not yet fully recovered.

Source: Farside Investors

The spot ETF inflows have been positive since the 25th of August, a more encouraging sign. However, an analyst pointed out that derivatives flows would be needed to propel the market into a sustained bullish mode.

The Bitcoin bullish phase is ongoing; holders need not panic

Source: CryptoQuant

In a post on CryptoQuant, analyst Darkfost noted the percentage of supply in profit was at 90%. This level often appears in bull markets and can coincide with waves of market euphoria.

Darkfost argued that a high supply-in-profit need not be purely negative; it can drive prices higher as long-term buyers remain patient and derivatives flows support momentum.

If supply-in-profit falls below 90%, that decline could signal the start of a corrective phase, though that threshold should be weighed alongside derivatives and volume data.

Source: Axel Adler Jr on X

Axel Adler Jr observed the market was near a bearish boundary, with the integrated market index at 43% — slightly bearish but close to neutral.

A few hours of sustained positive flows in derivatives could tip sentiment back toward neutral or slightly bullish. Absent that, any move toward $115K may be a temporary bounce.

Short-term indicators leaned bearish if supply-in-profit declines below 90%; if it holds, long-term holders have a path to recovery.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

On the 4-hour chart, price was climbing toward the 50-period moving average (MA) dynamic resistance at $113K. The A/D indicator showed weak buying volume, and trading volume has declined this week as price dropped.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a 90% supply in profit mean for long-term Bitcoin holders?

At 90% supply in profit, long-term holders generally remain patient because the level often coincides with bull phases. Short-term volatility can increase, so holders should watch derivatives flows and on-chain exchange inflows to time rebalancing decisions.

How can traders use derivatives flows to confirm a bullish shift?

Traders look for sustained positive net flows into futures and options, rising open interest with favorable funding rates, and increasing spot ETF inflows. These signs together suggest demand is broadening beyond spot buyers, supporting a durable bullish shift.

When should investors expect a corrective phase?

A corrective phase may begin if supply-in-profit declines below the 90% threshold alongside falling derivatives flows, weak volume, and failure to hold key support levels. Confirmations come from on-chain outflows to exchanges and deteriorating market breadth.

Key Takeaways

• Supply-in-profit near 90%: Common in bull phases; not an automatic sell signal.
• Short-term risk: Weak derivatives flows and declining volume make temporary pullbacks likely.
• Actionable signals: Watch derivatives flows, spot ETF inflows, and the 50-period MA around $113K for confirmation.

Conclusion

Bitcoin supply in profit at ~90% reflects a bullish macro backdrop but does not eliminate short-term downside. Monitor derivatives flows, spot ETF inflows, and technical indicators like the 50-period MA for confirmation. COINOTAG will update this analysis as new on-chain and market data arrive; traders should combine these signals into a disciplined risk plan.