Bitcoin May Test $105K as Liquidity Clusters Point to September $100K Support and Potential Q4 Rebound

• Liquidity clusters near $100K–$110K create frequent rejections and liquidation events.

• Historical seasonality shows March and November as the most consistently strong months for Bitcoin.

• August losses (~6.5%) were smaller than recent years; September support at $100K is pivotal for year-end outlook.

Meta description: Bitcoin liquidity clusters near $105K are pressuring price; learn how September’s $100K support could shape a Q4 rebound. Read analysis and key takeaways.

What are Bitcoin liquidity clusters and how do they affect price?

Bitcoin liquidity clusters are concentrated zones where many traders place stops and leverage orders, increasing the risk of cascading liquidations. These clusters magnify volatility and frequently cause short-term rejections at psychological levels such as $100K, $110K and $120K.

How could September’s $100K support shape Bitcoin’s Q4 rebound?

September’s role is decisive because sustained support at $100K reduces forced selling from liquidation clusters. If Bitcoin holds above $100K, seasonal patterns and historical returns indicate a higher probability of a Q4 recovery. Conversely, a break below that level would likely accelerate downside momentum.

Bitcoin faces pressure near $105K as liquidity clusters build, but historical patterns suggest September’s support may shape the Q4 rebound.

• Bitcoin is struggling around $105K as repeated rejections and liquidity clusters keep short-term momentum tilted to the downside.
• Historical data shows August losses were smaller than usual, while September’s $100K support could decide the year-end rebound.
• Strong seasonal gains in March and November highlight Bitcoin’s recurring bullish cycles despite short-term volatility and heavy liquidations.

Bitcoin markets are entering September under significant pressure, with liquidity clusters forming near the $105,000 to $108,000 range. Every small upward push has retraced quickly, leaving downside momentum dominant and making meaningful reversals difficult in the short term.

Data shared on X by analyst Ted illustrated Bitcoin’s three-month price action between June and August. The liquidation heatmap showed clear leverage concentrations at major levels, highlighting the zones where traders placed heavy bets.

Why do liquidity clusters shape market sentiment?

Between $95,500 and $128,000, the chart shows alternating phases of high volatility and consolidation. Yellow zones mapped the highest potential liquidations around $100,000, $110,000, and $120,000, reflecting intense trader activity at psychological levels.

Source: Ted

Green zones indicated moderate clusters between $105,000 and $115,000, suggesting consistent leverage activity inside the broader channel. Purple bands above $120,000 and below $100,000 marked lower liquidation density, and thus fewer forced moves when those regions are tested.

Liquidation events increased in July and August, with more frequent yellow bands and higher volatility. Near $125,000, Bitcoin was often rejected, while $100,000 repeatedly served as a durable support through pullbacks.

How do historical returns inform current expectations?

Tom Tucker’s monthly return analysis highlights seasonality as a strong guide. August slid about 6.5% this cycle, a smaller decline than recent Augusts. March and November historically show consistent strength, the latter delivering an outsized average return in the dataset reviewed.

Source: Tom Tucker

Average returns in the dataset: March ~12.21%, November ~46.02%, August ~-6.5% (this cycle). May shows larger negative outliers, including a 35.31% loss in 2021, while December remains mixed across years.

Summary table: Historical monthly returns (selected)

Frequently Asked Questions

What level should traders watch for immediate downside risk?

Traders should monitor the $100,000 support level closely because breaks below this zone risk triggering concentrated liquidations and accelerating declines.

How can investors use seasonality in planning?

Use historical seasonality as one input: stronger months like March and November can inform positioning, but combine seasonality with liquidity heatmaps and macro indicators for risk management.

Key Takeaways

• Liquidity clusters matter: Concentrated leverage near $100K–$110K raises liquidation risk and short-term rejection potential.
• September is pivotal: Holding $100K increases the odds of a healthier Q4, while a break would likely worsen downside momentum.
• Seasonal patterns help: Historical gains in March and November support the possibility of a rebound if structural supports remain intact.

Conclusion

Bitcoin faces tangible pressure from liquidity clusters around $105K, and the market’s ability to hold the $100K support in September will be a major determinant of Q4 performance. Combine liquidity heatmap analysis with seasonal return data and risk controls to navigate the current environment. COINOTAG will continue monitoring liquidation patterns and historical indicators to guide readers.