Bitcoin Momentum Cools, Signaling Possible Downside to 78,000 USD Levels

• Monthly MACD bearish turn marks fourth since 2018, historically leading to 60% drawdowns.

• Short-term indicators reveal lower highs and reduced volume, with price hovering near key support at 86,000 USD.

• Kalshi forecasts project a 78,000 USD yearly low, down 19,000 USD from prior estimates, amid rising open interest pressures.

Bitcoin cooling momentum raises red flags for 2025: Bearish MACD signals, CME gaps, and lower forecasts point to correction risks. Stay informed on price levels—monitor support zones now for strategic trading decisions.

What is Causing Bitcoin’s Cooling Momentum in Late 2025?

Bitcoin’s cooling momentum stems from a bearish shift in monthly technical indicators and fading short-term price strength following a rejection near 110,000 USD. This pattern echoes historical retracements where extended rallies give way to corrective phases, with the latest MACD histogram rollover confirming waning bullish force. As $BTC trades around 86,000 USD, broader market caution intensifies focus on downside targets and liquidity zones.

How Are Short-Term Charts Reflecting This Bitcoin Price Hesitation?

Short-term Bitcoin price action displays clear signs of hesitation, with the asset failing to sustain levels above 88,000 USD and forming lower highs on intraday charts. Volume has notably decreased during recent sessions, indicating reduced buyer conviction as $BTC consolidates between 85,800 USD and 86,100 USD. Traders are closely monitoring the unfilled CME futures gap at 85,100 USD, which historical data shows tends to attract price within days—over the past five months, nearly all such gaps have closed promptly, often signaling brief but sharp moves.

A break below 86,000 USD could accelerate selling toward the 84,500 USD liquidity pool, where accumulated stop-loss orders might amplify volatility. On-chain metrics further support this cooling trend, with exchange inflows rising slightly, suggesting profit-taking by long-term holders. Expert analysis from platforms like TradingView highlights that such sideways-to-down patterns often precede deeper corrections, especially when aligned with broader macroeconomic uncertainties like interest rate expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Does the Bearish Monthly MACD Mean for Bitcoin’s 2025 Price Outlook?

The bearish monthly MACD for Bitcoin, the fourth such occurrence since 2018, typically precedes significant drawdowns averaging 60% based on historical precedents. Analyst Ali_charts points out that this could target around 40,000 USD if patterns repeat, though current rejection from 110,000 USD suggests an initial pullback to test mid-cycle supports. Investors should prepare for volatility but note that past cycles also led to renewed uptrends post-correction.

Will Bitcoin Fill the CME Gap at 85,100 USD Soon?

Yes, Bitcoin is likely to fill the CME gap at 85,100 USD in the near term, given that almost every gap over the past five months has been filled quickly, often within a few trading days. As price action cools near 86,000 USD with diminishing volume, downward pressure could easily draw it to this level, providing a natural support test before any potential rebound.

Key Takeaways

• Historical MACD Patterns: Bearish turns have averaged 60% corrections since 2018, positioning 40,000 USD as a plausible target amid current weakness.
• Short-Term Support Zones: Key levels at 85,800-86,100 USD hold temporarily, but a CME gap fill at 85,100 USD may trigger further downside to 84,500 USD.
• Forecast Adjustments: Kalshi’s updated 78,000 USD yearly low reflects trader expectations of deeper declines, urging position reviews before year-end.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s cooling momentum in late 2025, driven by bearish monthly MACD signals and short-term price hesitation, underscores the need for vigilance among traders navigating potential corrections toward 78,000 USD or lower. While historical patterns suggest temporary drawdowns before recoveries, monitoring CME gaps and volume shifts remains essential for informed decisions. As market dynamics evolve, staying attuned to these indicators will help position portfolios for the next phase of volatility.

Bitcoin shows cooling momentum across monthly and intraday charts as traders watch CME gaps, shifting forecasts, and key downside price levels.

• Monthly momentum indicators show weakening strength after rejection near 110,000 USD, placing traders’ focus on whether Bitcoin continues toward deeper corrective price zones.
• Short-term charts reveal fading volume and lower highs as Bitcoin trades near 86,000 USD, drawing attention to the open CME gap at 85,100 USD.
• Kalshi’s updated forecast projects a 78,000 USD yearly low, reflecting expectations of further downside as open interest pressures shape upcoming market movement.

$BTC market conditions show renewed caution as traders assess momentum after the latest monthly shift. Recent activity reflects cooling strength, wider uncertainty, and growing attention to downside levels across multiple timeframes.

Monthly Structure Turns Cautious

Analyst Ali_charts noted that the monthly MACD has turned bearish for the fourth time since 2018. He observed that earlier shifts produced average drawdowns near 60%, placing a possible target around 40,000 USD if the pattern repeats.

The monthly chart he referenced displays each sizable retracement since 2018 and the rhythm of extended rallies and resets.The current candle shows a heavy rejection near 110,000 USD, pulling $BTC toward 86,000 USD.

That move resembles earlier mid-cycle retracements, where strong rallies stalled before forming deeper corrective waves. The latest histogram rollover on the MACD aligns with waning momentum after the recent all-time high.

$BTC is now trading slightly below 87,000 USD.

Short-Term Cooling Near Key Liquidity Levels

Short-term price action shows hesitation after $BTC touched 88,087.5 and failed to hold that level. Local support has been found between 85,800 and 86,100 USD, yet price movement remains sideways-to-down.

Traders are also watching the open CME gap at 85,100 USD. Over the past five months, almost every gap has been filled, with most completing within days. Losing 86,000 USD could press price toward the 84,500 USD liquidity area.

Market Forecasts Shift Toward Lower Yearly Levels

A new data point from Kalshi shows a forecasted yearly low of 78,000 USD for $BTC. The forecast fell 19,000 USD from an earlier reading, suggesting traders expect deeper downside before recovery.

The cascading pattern shows repeated failed bounces, each followed by lower levels. Heavy participation near the most recent drop indicates traders are repositioning as the market cools after strong yearly performance.

The small upward-ticking red dot near the final candle signals hesitation rather than a clear reversal.Meanwhile, open interest also factors into sentiment.

According to the latest update, 6 billion USD in shorts will be wiped out if $BTC adds another 10,000 USD, adding a layer of tension as traders track the next decisive move.