Bitcoin correction risk has increased after MVRV fell below its 365-day SMA, pushing price toward $110K support; short-term weakness combined with Spot Taker sell tilt and heavy long exposure raises the chance of a deeper pullback to $108.8K–$100K if buyers fail to defend the zone.
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MVRV below SMA365 signals cycle weakness and higher correction risk.
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Spot Taker CVD recently tilted to selling, pressuring quick bullish reversals.
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Binance long bias at ~64.6% increases liquidation risk if price drops (Long/Short Ratio 1.82).
Bitcoin correction risk rises as MVRV drops below SMA365; watch $110K support and Spot Taker flows — read on for levels and trade signals.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s MVRV dropped below its 365-day SMA, increasing the probability that the post-$124.4K correction will extend. Spot Taker CVD tilting to sell and heavy long positioning around 64.6% elevate short-term downside risk toward $108.8K–$100K if buyers fail to defend.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) MVRV ratio has declined under its 365-day simple moving average, a historically bearish sign that often precedes extended corrective stretches.
Since the March 2024 peak (MVRV ~2.77), upside momentum has weakened as the ratio formed lower highs, reflecting reduced market exuberance after the $124.4K high.
While MVRV below SMA365 raises caution, persistent ETF inflows and adoption trends make the current cycle structurally more complex than prior cycles.
The central question remains whether demand can offset the technical warnings and stabilize price near the $110K area.
Will $110K support hold after trendline break?
Short answer: The $110K level is a critical support zone; if buyers fail to hold $108.8K, downside can extend toward $100K, though rebounds at these levels have occurred historically.
Bitcoin’s recent decline breached an ascending trendline and pushed price toward $110.6K, indicating the market momentarily lost bullish structure.
Support clusters sit at $110K and $108.8K; a decisive break below these levels would increase the probability of a deeper correction to near $100K.
Momentum indicators, including an RSI around 40, show sentiment is fragile but not deeply oversold; defensive buying near support could still trigger a stabilizing bounce.
Source: TradingView (chart used for technical levels and trendline analysis)
Could Spot Taker CVD extend Bitcoin’s correction?
Spot Taker CVD over the last 90 days displayed alternating control, with recent sessions tilting toward taker-sell dominance and adding selling pressure to spot markets.
When Spot flows are skewed to selling, rebounds often face quick rejection as liquidity evaporates near resistance.
At the same time, continued ETF and institutional inflows remain an offsetting factor, creating a mixed short-term outlook.
If Taker sell dominance persists, the market may struggle to reclaim key resistances and could revisit $108.8K or lower without renewed buying pressure.
Source: CryptoQuant (Spot Taker CVD analysis)
Are traders’ long bets setting up a bigger risk?
Exchange-level data shows a long bias that increases short-term vulnerability. Binance data pointed to ~64.55% longs versus 35.45% shorts, producing a Long/Short Ratio near 1.82.
Such a skew toward leveraged long positions can amplify downside through liquidation cascades if price moves sharply lower.
Overconfidence and concentrated leverage often accelerate declines during volatile sessions, even when broader structural demand remains.
Source: CoinGlass (exchange long/short ratios)
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key levels to watch for Bitcoin this week?
Watch support at $110K and $108.8K and resistance near recent swing highs around $124K. A break below $108.8K raises the odds of a move toward $100K; holding $110K would improve the chance of a consolidation and recovery.
How does MVRV below SMA365 affect trader positioning?
MVRV below its 365-day SMA suggests realized gains vs market price have weakened, reducing the cycle’s strength. Traders may shift to risk-off, increasing sell pressure and making leveraged positions more fragile.
Summary table — Comparative risk indicators
| Indicator | Current signal | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV vs SMA365 | Below SMA365 | Higher correction probability |
| Spot Taker CVD (90d) | Taker-sell tilt | Pressure on spot rallies |
| Exchange Long/Short | Longs ~64.6% | Liquidation risk if price drops |
Key Takeaways
- MVRV below SMA365: Sign of fading cycle momentum and elevated correction risk.
- Spot Taker sell tilt: Adds pressure to spot markets, making quick rebounds harder.
- Leverage concentration: Heavy long exposure increases potential for rapid downside via liquidations; monitor open interest.
Conclusion
Bitcoin correction risk has increased as MVRV sits below its 365-day SMA and Spot Taker CVD tilts toward selling. The $110K–$108.8K zone is decisive: hold and BTC can base for another leg up; fail and a move toward $100K becomes likelier. Monitor flows, leverage metrics, and institutional inflows for the next directional cues — COINOTAG will update as conditions evolve.
