Bitcoin MVRV, NVT and Stock-to-Flow Trends Suggest Possible Pre‑Euphoria Phase, Could Precede Rally

• Pre-euphoria valuation: MVRV near 2.1 suggests accumulation ahead of parabolic runups.

• High NVT (759) shows market value outpacing on‑chain volume, often a sign of stronger hodling behavior.

• Stock‑to‑Flow spike to 426 highlights scarcity; positive funding rates confirm leveraged demand.

Bitcoin valuation signals show tightening supply and growing demand; read concise analysis and next steps for traders and investors.

What are Bitcoin valuation signals and why do they matter?

Bitcoin valuation signals are on‑chain and derivatives metrics that measure investor behavior, supply dynamics and market leverage. They matter because combined readings (MVRV, NVT, Stock‑to‑Flow, funding rates) can indicate whether the market is in accumulation, distribution or pre‑euphoria phases, guiding risk management.

How does the MVRV Ratio signal market stages?

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio at ~2.1 points to a pre‑euphoria zone where market value modestly exceeds investor cost basis. Historically, values in this range have often preceded strong rallies as long‑term holders reduce selling and new demand appears.

Short‑term volatility has tested sentiment, but persistent accumulation and stable on‑chain flows kept the ratio constructive.

Source: CryptoQuant

Can the NVT surge redefine Bitcoin’s valuation?

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio spiked to 759, indicating market capitalization is outpacing transaction volume. Elevated NVT often reflects stronger holder conviction when price rises faster than on‑chain activity.

High NVT can also flag potential overvaluation, but sustained circulation growth and accompanying metrics here suggest the surge aligns with healthier accumulation rather than pure speculation.

Source: Santiment

How does Stock‑to‑Flow affect scarcity and price outlook?

Stock‑to‑Flow jumped to 426, signaling that new issuance is small relative to circulating supply. Higher S2F historically correlates with stronger scarcity narratives and reduced sell pressure from miners and short‑term holders.

When S2F climbs alongside positive on‑chain accumulation, the probability of upward price pressure tends to increase over medium to long horizons.

Source: Santiment

How do funding rates inform short‑term trader behavior?

Binance Funding Rates remained mostly positive, indicating traders are paying premiums to hold leveraged longs. Persistent positive funding underscores speculative demand and can amplify upside momentum during accumulation phases.

Intermittent negative funding spikes remove weaker hands, improving the quality of any subsequent advance by reducing immediate sell pressure.

Source: Santiment

Are these signals paving the way for another rally?

Collectively, higher NVT (759), a Stock‑to‑Flow of 426 and positive funding create a favorable mix: expanding valuation, increasing scarcity and persistent leverage demand. Those conditions have historically set the stage for multi‑leg rallies.

Risk remains — short‑term corrections and macro shocks can interrupt moves — but on‑chain evidence supports a bullish case if the metrics sustain.

Quick comparison table: Key on‑chain metrics

Frequently Asked Questions

How reliable is MVRV for timing Bitcoin rallies?

MVRV is a strong gauge of unrealized profit and loss across holders; values near 2.0 historically mark early rally stages, but it should be combined with volume and funding data for timing confirmation.

What does a high NVT mean for traders?

A high NVT indicates market value is growing faster than transactional utility. For traders, it signals stronger accumulation but also warrants caution for short‑term overstretchs.

Is Stock‑to‑Flow still a valid scarcity metric?

Stock‑to‑Flow remains useful to quantify issuance scarcity. It should be used alongside holder behavior metrics and macro context rather than as a sole timing tool.

Key Takeaways

• Confluence matters: MVRV, NVT and S2F together present a stronger signal than any metric alone.
• Risk management: Positive funding indicates leverage; manage position sizing and stops.
• Actionable insight: Monitor sustained NVT and funding trends for confirmation before increasing exposure.

Conclusion

On‑chain and derivatives indicators collectively suggest Bitcoin valuation signals are aligning toward a bullish continuation: expanding valuation, tighter supply and persistent leverage demand. Investors should combine these metrics with risk controls and monitor for sustaining trends before assuming momentum. Publication: 2025‑09‑22; Updated: 2025‑09‑22. Author: COINOTAG.