Bitcoin Nears Key Resistance as Whale Activity Declines, Indicating Possible Breakout or Pullback

• Bitcoin approaches a critical resistance level near $111K as whale inflows decline, signaling a potential breakout or pullback in the near term.

• Despite reduced derivatives volume and overbought technical indicators, on-chain metrics suggest sustained bullish momentum among large holders.

• According to COINOTAG sources, the current subdued whale activity contrasts previous cycles, indicating accumulation rather than profit-taking.

Bitcoin nears key resistance at $111K amid declining whale inflows and cooling derivatives, with on-chain data hinting at continued upside potential.

Bitcoin Nears Key Resistance as Whale Inflows Hit Cycle Lows

Bitcoin’s price action has been consolidating just below the $111,000 resistance zone, a level that historically capped rallies. On June 11th, BTC hovered near $110,000, testing this critical supply area. Notably, whale inflows to exchanges, particularly Binance, have dropped to a cycle low of $2.99 billion, a stark contrast to previous peaks ranging between $5.3 billion and $8.45 billion.

This reduction in large holder activity on exchanges suggests a shift in market dynamics. Instead of rushing to liquidate positions, whales appear to be accumulating or holding, reflecting stronger conviction in Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. Such restrained exchange activity often precedes sustained upward price movements, indicating that the current rally may still have room to evolve.

Source: CryptoQuant

On-Chain Valuation Metrics Indicate Room for Further Upside

The NVT Golden Cross metric currently stands at 0.33, significantly below the overbought threshold of 2.2. This suggests that Bitcoin’s valuation remains grounded in real transaction activity rather than speculative excess. Historically, elevated NVT values have coincided with overheated market conditions and local tops, but the present reading implies a more sustainable price level.

Such on-chain valuation data supports a neutral-to-bullish outlook, indicating that Bitcoin could break through the $111K resistance if momentum continues. This aligns with the subdued whale inflows, reinforcing the notion that large holders expect further gains rather than imminent sell-offs.

Source: CryptoQuant

Long-Term Scarcity Narrative Remains Intact Despite Short-Term Fluctuations

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has recently declined by approximately 25% to 795,000, reflecting a short-term deviation from its scarcity-driven valuation model. This dip could be attributed to increased circulation or temporary shifts in demand, but it has not fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s long-term supply dynamics.

The post-halving supply remains constrained, supporting the broader scarcity narrative that underpins Bitcoin’s value proposition. While short-term price movements may be influenced by speculative flows and macroeconomic factors, the structural supply scarcity continues to favor a bullish outlook over the medium to long term.

Source: CryptoQuant

Derivatives Market Shows Signs of Cooling, Reducing Speculative Pressure

Activity in Bitcoin futures and options markets has notably declined, with futures volume dropping nearly 30% and options volume falling by 37%. Open interest (OI) in futures decreased by 2%, while options OI saw a modest increase of 1.85%. These shifts indicate a reduction in speculative leverage and a more cautious market stance.

Funding rates remain positive but subdued, with an OI-weighted funding rate of 0.0075%, reflecting a mild long bias without aggressive leverage. This contrasts with previous cycles where elevated funding rates often preceded sharp reversals, suggesting that current market conditions are more balanced and less prone to sudden corrections.

Source: CoinGlass

Technical Indicators Point to Potential Short-Term Consolidation

Bitcoin is currently testing the $109,000 to $111,000 supply zone while maintaining support above a rising trendline. However, the Stochastic RSI has surged above 93, signaling overbought conditions that often precede minor pullbacks or sideways price action.

Despite this, the underlying trend remains intact, supported by low exchange inflows and sustained buying pressure from long-term holders. To confirm a bullish continuation, BTC must decisively break above the $111,000 resistance level, which would open the door for further price discovery.

Source: TradingView

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s consolidation near $110,000 amid declining whale inflows and cooling derivatives activity reflects a market in cautious accumulation rather than distribution. While technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, the broader on-chain and valuation metrics support a constructive outlook. A decisive break above the $111,000 resistance zone would likely signal renewed bullish momentum, paving the way for further gains. Investors should monitor whale activity and derivatives volumes closely as key indicators of market sentiment moving forward.